Mativ Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MATV Stock  USD 12.75  0.25  1.92%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mativ Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 12.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.23. Mativ Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Mativ Holdings' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Mativ Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Mativ Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Mativ Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mativ Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Mativ Holdings' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.99)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.1
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.675
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.045
Wall Street Target Price
18.25
Using Mativ Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mativ Holdings from the perspective of Mativ Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mativ Holdings using Mativ Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mativ using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mativ Holdings' stock price.

Mativ Holdings Implied Volatility

    
  1.54  
Mativ Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mativ Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mativ Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mativ Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mativ Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mativ Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 12.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.23.

Mativ Holdings after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 12.62  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mativ Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Mativ Stock please use our How to Invest in Mativ Holdings guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mativ contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mativ Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0963% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Mativ Holdings trading at USD 12.75, that is roughly USD 0.0123 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mativ Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mativ Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Mativ Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mativ Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Mativ Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Mativ Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mativ Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Mativ Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mativ Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mativ. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Mativ Holdings Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mativ price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mativ using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mativ charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Mativ Holdings' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1995-12-31
Previous Quarter
95.6 M
Current Value
102.9 M
Quarterly Volatility
75.5 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Mativ Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mativ Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mativ Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mativ Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 12.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.23.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mativ Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mativ Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mativ Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mativ HoldingsMativ Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mativ Holdings Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mativ Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mativ Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.83 and 16.28, respectively. We have considered Mativ Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
12.75
12.56
Expected Value
16.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mativ Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mativ Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5354
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3908
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0325
SAESum of the absolute errors24.2294
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mativ Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mativ Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mativ Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mativ Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mativ Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.9012.6216.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.5115.2318.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.7312.5213.31
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
16.6118.2520.26
Details

Mativ Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mativ Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mativ Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mativ Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mativ Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mativ Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mativ Holdings' historical news coverage. Mativ Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.90 and 16.34, respectively. We have considered Mativ Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
12.75
12.62
After-hype Price
16.34
Upside
Mativ Holdings is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mativ Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mativ Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mativ Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mativ Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mativ Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
3.72
  0.13 
  0.01 
9 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
12.75
12.62
1.02 
826.67  
Notes

Mativ Holdings Hype Timeline

Mativ Holdings is now traded for 12.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Mativ is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.62. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Mativ Holdings is about 7750.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.74. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.73. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mativ Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.84. The entity recorded a loss per share of 8.01. The firm last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. Mativ Holdings had 2:1 split on the 22nd of August 2012. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mativ Holdings to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Mativ Stock please use our How to Invest in Mativ Holdings guide.

Mativ Holdings Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mativ Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mativ Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Mativ Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mativ Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
TROXTronox Holdings PLC(0.06)3 per month 2.69  0.19  9.38 (5.14) 30.74 
CPACCementos Pacasmayo SAA(0.06)10 per month 1.66  0.13  4.20 (2.74) 57.41 
RYAMRayonier Advanced Materials 0.23 9 per month 2.67  0.06  6.38 (3.72) 28.05 
KROKronos Worldwide(0.06)3 per month 2.72  0.06  5.58 (4.70) 12.10 
NFGCNew Found Gold 0.02 9 per month 4.36  0.11  7.77 (8.41) 28.90 
THMInternational Tower Hill(0.14)10 per month 4.17  0.06  10.38 (7.61) 23.81 
LXULsb Industries(0.06)10 per month 2.72  0.06  6.16 (4.33) 16.87 
DCDakota Gold Corp(0.41)14 per month 2.95  0.13  5.90 (4.76) 26.64 
ASIXAdvanSix 0.08 8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 4.89 (4.88) 18.89 
GROYGold Royalty Corp(0.02)8 per month 3.41  0.11  5.70 (5.37) 19.48 

Other Forecasting Options for Mativ Holdings

For every potential investor in Mativ, whether a beginner or expert, Mativ Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mativ Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mativ. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mativ Holdings' price trends.

Mativ Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mativ Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mativ Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mativ Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mativ Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mativ Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mativ Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mativ Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mativ Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mativ Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mativ Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mativ Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mativ stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mativ Holdings

The number of cover stories for Mativ Holdings depends on current market conditions and Mativ Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mativ Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mativ Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Mativ Holdings Short Properties

Mativ Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Mativ Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mativ Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mativ Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mativ Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding54.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments94.3 M

Additional Tools for Mativ Stock Analysis

When running Mativ Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Mativ Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mativ Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Mativ Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mativ Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mativ Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mativ Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.