Mattel Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MAT Stock | USD 14.95 -0.13 -0.86% |
This reference page presents Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Mattel Inc. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mattel Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 14.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.90.When Mattel Inc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Mattel Inc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Mattel observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Mattel Inc is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mattel Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 14.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.61 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.90 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mattel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mattel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mattel | Mattel Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Mattel's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 11.14 and upside around 18.56 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mattel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mattel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1213 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3816 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0213 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.8988 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mattel
Mattel's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Mattel often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.Mattel Related Equities
These stocks are related to Mattel within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer review, pricing, or spreading risk. Market cap and total value checks frame Mattel's size within the competitive field.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mattel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Mattel stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Mattel Inc.
Mattel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mattel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Mattel's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.56 | |||
| Variance | 12.66 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mattel
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Mattel Inc can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Mattel Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Mattel Inc matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 318.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
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