ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| MAPPX Fund | USD 23.71 -0.25 -1.04% |
This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS on the next trading day is expected to be 23.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.01.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS on the next trading day is expected to be 23.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.01 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ADVANTAGE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO | ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 21.82 on the downside to about 25.30 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.088 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3392 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether ADVANTAGE is a viable investment for any investor. ADVANTAGE Mutual Fund price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Related Equities
The following equities are related to ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO within the Large Growth space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO mutual fund provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS is most likely to be profitable.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.71 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.71 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.25 |
ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Risk Indicators
The analysis of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Variance | 2.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO
A coverage review of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.