ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MAPPX Fund  USD 23.71  -0.25  -1.04%   
This Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS on the next trading day is expected to be 23.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.01.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
Triple exponential smoothing for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS on the next trading day is expected to be 23.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.19 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.01 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ADVANTAGE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 21.82 on the downside to about 25.30 on the upside.
Market Value
23.71
23.56
Expected Value
25.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.088
MADMean absolute deviation0.3392
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0139
SAESum of the absolute errors20.01
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS observations.

Other Forecasting Options for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO

Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether ADVANTAGE is a viable investment for any investor. ADVANTAGE Mutual Fund price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.

ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Related Equities

The following equities are related to ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO within the Large Growth space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Market Strength Events

Assessing the market strength of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO mutual fund provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS is most likely to be profitable.

ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO Risk Indicators

The analysis of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO

A coverage review of ADVANTAGE PORTFOLIO CLASS shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.