Mutual Of Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

MACAX Fund  USD 11.93  0.03  0.25%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mutual Of America on the next trading day is expected to be 11.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.24. Mutual Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Mutual Of's share price is at 55. This indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mutual Of, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 55

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Mutual Of's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mutual Of America, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Mutual Of hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mutual Of America from the perspective of Mutual Of response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mutual Of America on the next trading day is expected to be 11.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.24.

Mutual Of after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.93  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mutual Of to cross-verify your projections.

Mutual Of Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mutual price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mutual using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mutual charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Mutual Of is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mutual Of America value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mutual Of Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mutual Of America on the next trading day is expected to be 11.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mutual Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mutual Of's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Of Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mutual OfMutual Of Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mutual Of Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mutual Of's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mutual Of's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.59 and 12.24, respectively. We have considered Mutual Of's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.93
11.92
Expected Value
12.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mutual Of mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mutual Of mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8504
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0361
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0031
SAESum of the absolute errors2.2386
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mutual Of America. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mutual Of. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mutual Of

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mutual Of America. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.6111.9312.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.5711.8912.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
11.7711.8912.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mutual Of. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mutual Of's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mutual Of's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mutual Of America.

Mutual Of After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mutual Of at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mutual Of or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Mutual Of, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mutual Of Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mutual Of's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mutual Of's historical news coverage. Mutual Of's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.61 and 12.25, respectively. We have considered Mutual Of's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.93
11.93
After-hype Price
12.25
Upside
Mutual Of is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mutual Of America is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mutual Of Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Mutual Of is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mutual Of backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mutual Of, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.32
 0.00  
 0.00  
1 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.93
11.93
0.00 
800.00  
Notes

Mutual Of Hype Timeline

Mutual Of America is now traded for 11.93. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Mutual is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mutual Of is about 3200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.93. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mutual Of to cross-verify your projections.

Mutual Of Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mutual Of's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mutual Of's future price movements. Getting to know how Mutual Of's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mutual Of may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SPEDXAlger Dynamic Opportunities(0.07)2 per month 0.00 (0.16) 1.27 (1.25) 3.51 
SILVXSummit Global Investments 0.07 11 per month 0.40  0.02  1.15 (0.83) 2.82 
PVCMXPalm Valley Capital 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.24) 0.49 (0.41) 1.08 
SDVGXSit Dividend Growth 0.00 0 per month 0.38  0.09  1.01 (1.12) 11.18 
RYVFXRoyce Small Cap Value 0.03 7 per month 0.43  0.13  2.35 (1.19) 12.32 
SDVSXSit Dividend Growth 0.03 1 per month 0.36  0.09  1.01 (1.06) 11.34 
BWLIXAmerican Beacon Bridgeway 0.00 0 per month 0.40  0.11  1.55 (1.08) 3.03 
HDPMXHodges Fund Retail 0.03 1 per month 1.29  0.1  2.42 (2.32) 12.85 
BRLVXAmerican Beacon Bridgeway 0.03 1 per month 0.39  0.12  1.54 (1.11) 3.00 
BTMFXBoston Trust Midcap(0.02)5 per month 0.36  0.09  1.62 (0.96) 12.36 

Other Forecasting Options for Mutual Of

For every potential investor in Mutual, whether a beginner or expert, Mutual Of's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mutual Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mutual. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mutual Of's price trends.

Mutual Of Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mutual Of mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mutual Of could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mutual Of by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mutual Of Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mutual Of mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mutual Of shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mutual Of mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Mutual Of America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mutual Of Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mutual Of's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mutual Of's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mutual mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mutual Of

The number of cover stories for Mutual Of depends on current market conditions and Mutual Of's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mutual Of is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mutual Of's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Mutual Mutual Fund

Mutual Of financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mutual Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mutual with respect to the benefits of owning Mutual Of security.
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