LATAM Airlines Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| LTM Stock | USD 64.37 0.23 0.36% |
LATAM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of LATAM Airlines' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using LATAM Airlines hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LATAM Airlines Group from the perspective of LATAM Airlines response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of LATAM Airlines Group on the next trading day is expected to be 66.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.56. LATAM Airlines after-hype prediction price | USD 64.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LATAM Airlines to cross-verify your projections. LATAM Airlines Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LATAM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LATAM using various technical indicators. When you analyze LATAM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LATAM Airlines Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of LATAM Airlines Group on the next trading day is expected to be 66.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 1.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 69.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LATAM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LATAM Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LATAM Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LATAM Airlines | LATAM Airlines Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
LATAM Airlines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LATAM Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LATAM Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.44 and 68.40, respectively. We have considered LATAM Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LATAM Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LATAM Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7924 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1404 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0206 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 69.5621 |
Predictive Modules for LATAM Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LATAM Airlines Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LATAM Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LATAM Airlines After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LATAM Airlines at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LATAM Airlines or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LATAM Airlines, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LATAM Airlines Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LATAM Airlines' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LATAM Airlines' historical news coverage. LATAM Airlines' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 62.62 and 66.60, respectively. We have considered LATAM Airlines' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LATAM Airlines is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LATAM Airlines Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
LATAM Airlines Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LATAM Airlines is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LATAM Airlines backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LATAM Airlines, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.69 | 1.98 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
64.37 | 64.61 | 0.73 |
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LATAM Airlines Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February LATAM Airlines Group is traded for 64.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. LATAM is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 64.61 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.73%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.69%. The volatility of related hype on LATAM Airlines is about 22000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 64.36. The company reported the last year's revenue of 12.83 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 976.97 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.92 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LATAM Airlines to cross-verify your projections.LATAM Airlines Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LATAM Airlines' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LATAM Airlines' future price movements. Getting to know how LATAM Airlines' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LATAM Airlines may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RYAAY | Ryanair Holdings PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.48 | 0.06 | 2.61 | (2.61) | 7.50 | |
| PAC | Grupo Aeroportuario del | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.22 | 2.70 | (2.00) | 10.54 | |
| JBHT | JB Hunt Transport | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.66 | 0.25 | 4.20 | (1.54) | 6.61 | |
| ASR | Grupo Aeroportuario del | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.19 | 2.48 | (1.73) | 6.58 | |
| BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.39 | (4.65) | 14.88 | |
| JOBY | Joby Aviation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.27 | (6.65) | 28.38 | |
| ZTO | ZTO Express | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | 0.23 | 2.83 | (1.81) | 7.33 | |
| AAL | American Airlines Group | (0.09) | 6 per month | 2.51 | 0.04 | 3.80 | (4.06) | 13.09 | |
| CNH | CNH Industrial NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.15 | 4.14 | (2.66) | 8.25 | |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.26 | 0.20 | 3.03 | (2.45) | 7.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for LATAM Airlines
For every potential investor in LATAM, whether a beginner or expert, LATAM Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LATAM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LATAM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LATAM Airlines' price trends.LATAM Airlines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LATAM Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LATAM Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LATAM Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LATAM Airlines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LATAM Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LATAM Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LATAM Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LATAM Airlines Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 53134.19 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0793 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 64.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 64.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.39 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.23 |
LATAM Airlines Risk Indicators
The analysis of LATAM Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LATAM Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting latam stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Variance | 3.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LATAM Airlines
The number of cover stories for LATAM Airlines depends on current market conditions and LATAM Airlines' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LATAM Airlines is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LATAM Airlines' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LATAM Airlines Short Properties
LATAM Airlines' future price predictability will typically decrease when LATAM Airlines' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LATAM Airlines Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LATAM Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LATAM Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 302.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LATAM Airlines to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Will Passenger Airlines sector continue expanding? Could LATAM diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LATAM Airlines. Expected growth trajectory for LATAM significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every LATAM Airlines data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of LATAM Airlines Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LATAM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LATAM Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LATAM Airlines' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because LATAM Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LATAM Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that LATAM Airlines' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether LATAM Airlines represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, LATAM Airlines' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.