LSV GLOBAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

LSVGX Fund  USD 17.23  -0.28  -1.60%   
LSV GLOBAL's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lsv Global Value on the next trading day is expected to be 17.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.74.When Lsv Global Value prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Lsv Global Value trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent LSV GLOBAL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. LSV GLOBAL's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for LSV GLOBAL works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lsv Global Value on the next trading day is expected to be 17.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.74 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LSV Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LSV GLOBAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates LSV GLOBAL's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 16.35 and upside near 18.02.
Market Value
17.23
17.18
Expected Value
18.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LSV GLOBAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LSV GLOBAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0203
MADMean absolute deviation0.1142
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0064
SAESum of the absolute errors6.7378
When Lsv Global Value prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Lsv Global Value trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent LSV GLOBAL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for LSV GLOBAL

Analyzing LSV GLOBAL's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in LSV GLOBAL's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.

LSV GLOBAL Related Equities

The peer firms below within the World Large-Stock Value space can help frame LSV GLOBAL's pricing and running costs in context. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across LSV GLOBAL's peer group. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LSV GLOBAL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for LSV GLOBAL mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade LSV GLOBAL.

LSV GLOBAL Risk Indicators

Assessing LSV GLOBAL's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting LSV GLOBAL's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for LSV GLOBAL

A coverage review of Lsv Global Value shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.