Louisiana Pacific Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

LPX Stock  USD 88.01  2.60  2.87%   
Louisiana Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Louisiana Pacific's share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Louisiana Pacific, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 50

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Louisiana Pacific's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Louisiana Pacific, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Louisiana Pacific hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Louisiana Pacific from the perspective of Louisiana Pacific response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Louisiana Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 89.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.49.

Louisiana Pacific after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 88.01  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Louisiana Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Louisiana Stock please use our How to Invest in Louisiana Pacific guide.

Louisiana Pacific Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Louisiana price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Louisiana using various technical indicators. When you analyze Louisiana charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Louisiana Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Louisiana Pacific value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Louisiana Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Louisiana Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 89.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.84, mean absolute percentage error of 5.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Louisiana Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Louisiana Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Louisiana Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Louisiana Pacific  Louisiana Pacific Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Louisiana Pacific Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Louisiana Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Louisiana Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 86.55 and 91.78, respectively. We have considered Louisiana Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
88.01
89.16
Expected Value
91.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Louisiana Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Louisiana Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.8198
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.844
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0221
SAESum of the absolute errors112.4862
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Louisiana Pacific. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Louisiana Pacific. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Louisiana Pacific

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Louisiana Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
85.4088.0190.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
83.4786.0888.69
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
77.3787.0696.75
Details

Louisiana Pacific After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Louisiana Pacific at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Louisiana Pacific or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Louisiana Pacific, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Louisiana Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Louisiana Pacific's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Louisiana Pacific's historical news coverage. Louisiana Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 85.40 and 90.62, respectively. We have considered Louisiana Pacific's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
88.01
88.01
After-hype Price
90.62
Upside
Louisiana Pacific is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Louisiana Pacific is based on 3 months time horizon.

Louisiana Pacific Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Louisiana Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Louisiana Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Louisiana Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
2.61
  0.02 
 0.00  
20 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 20 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
88.01
88.01
0.00 
343.42  
Notes

Louisiana Pacific Hype Timeline

On the 27th of January Louisiana Pacific is traded for 88.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Louisiana is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Louisiana Pacific is about 7457.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 88.01. About 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Louisiana Pacific was now reported as 24.84. The company last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2025. Louisiana Pacific had 2:1 split on the 9th of June 1993. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 20 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Louisiana Pacific to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Louisiana Stock please use our How to Invest in Louisiana Pacific guide.

Louisiana Pacific Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Louisiana Pacific's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Louisiana Pacific's future price movements. Getting to know how Louisiana Pacific's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Louisiana Pacific may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
UFPIUfp Industries 0.01 4 per month 1.06  0.1  3.46 (2.12) 7.57 
AXTAAxalta Coating Systems 0.35 10 per month 1.11  0.12  2.69 (2.53) 7.97 
HBMHudbay Minerals(0.39)19 per month 2.18  0.25  5.44 (4.01) 12.33 
NGDNew Gold 0.01 11 per month 2.39  0.26  6.67 (4.09) 15.00 
TFPMTriple Flag Precious 0.00 0 per month 1.81  0.20  4.21 (2.79) 12.83 
WFGWest Fraser Timber 0.00 0 per month 1.59  0.08  3.11 (2.95) 7.93 
CLFCleveland Cliffs(0.39)10 per month 4.87  0  5.23 (7.09) 17.41 
BVNCompania de Minas 0.00 0 per month 1.53  0.33  5.50 (3.44) 11.22 
ESIElement Solutions 0.76 16 per month 1.71  0.05  3.96 (3.60) 10.60 
OROsisko Gold Ro 0.00 0 per month 1.41  0.25  4.10 (2.63) 9.72 

Other Forecasting Options for Louisiana Pacific

For every potential investor in Louisiana, whether a beginner or expert, Louisiana Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Louisiana Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Louisiana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Louisiana Pacific's price trends.

Louisiana Pacific Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Louisiana Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Louisiana Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Louisiana Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Louisiana Pacific Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Louisiana Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Louisiana Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Louisiana Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Louisiana Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Louisiana Pacific Risk Indicators

The analysis of Louisiana Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Louisiana Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting louisiana stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Louisiana Pacific

The number of cover stories for Louisiana Pacific depends on current market conditions and Louisiana Pacific's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Louisiana Pacific is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Louisiana Pacific's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Louisiana Pacific Short Properties

Louisiana Pacific's future price predictability will typically decrease when Louisiana Pacific's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Louisiana Pacific often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Louisiana Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Louisiana Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding71 M
Cash And Short Term Investments340 M

Additional Tools for Louisiana Stock Analysis

When running Louisiana Pacific's price analysis, check to measure Louisiana Pacific's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Louisiana Pacific is operating at the current time. Most of Louisiana Pacific's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Louisiana Pacific's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Louisiana Pacific's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Louisiana Pacific to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.