LightPath Technologies Stock Forward View
| LPTH Stock | USD 10.53 -0.96 -8.36% |
The Naive Prediction forecast reference data for LightPath Technologies is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of LightPath Technologies on the next trading day is projected to be 10.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.04.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of LightPath Technologies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict LightPath Technologies. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction projections for LightPath Technologies are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of LightPath Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 10.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.70 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.04 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LightPath Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LightPath Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LightPath Technologies | LightPath Technologies Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates LightPath Technologies' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 2.78 on the downside to about 18.40 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LightPath Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LightPath Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7499 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6236 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0548 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 38.0382 |
Other Forecasting Options for LightPath Technologies
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of LightPath Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When LightPath Technologies' RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in LightPath Technologies' returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.LightPath Technologies Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of LightPath Technologies within the Information Technology space and offer context for ranking and strength. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across LightPath Technologies' peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LightPath Technologies Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for LightPath Technologies enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in LightPath Technologies. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of LightPath Technologies positions across market cycles.
LightPath Technologies Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing LightPath Technologies' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in LightPath Technologies' and determining how best to manage it. Studying LightPath Technologies' risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of lightpath stock.
| Mean Deviation | 5.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.81 | |||
| Variance | 60.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 41.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 35.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -7.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LightPath Technologies
The amount of media and story coverage tied to LightPath Technologies can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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LightPath Technologies Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to LightPath Technologies matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.9 M |