Lockheed Martin Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LMT Stock | USD 627.39 0.06 0.01% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Lockheed Martin, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from Lockheed Martin's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lockheed Martin on the next trading day is expected to be 627.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 575.89.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Lockheed Martin forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Lockheed Martin observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Lockheed Martin is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lockheed Martin on the next trading day is expected to be 627.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.60 , mean absolute percentage error of 135.78 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 575.89 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lockheed Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lockheed Martin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lockheed Martin | Lockheed Martin Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Lockheed Martin focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 625.44 on the downside to about 629.34 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lockheed Martin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lockheed Martin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1837 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.3658 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.5982 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 575.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lockheed Martin
The autocorrelation structure of Lockheed Martin's daily returns reveals whether Lockheed exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in Lockheed Stock price data.Lockheed Martin Related Equities
Sizing up Lockheed Martin against these stocks within the Industrials space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Market cap and total value checks frame Lockheed Martin's size within the competitive field. How Lockheed Martin ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes. Combining quantitative ratios with qualitative context such as management quality and market position sharpens peer comparisons.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lockheed Martin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Lockheed Martin stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing Lockheed Martin.
Lockheed Martin Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Lockheed Martin is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lockheed Martin's investment and either accepting or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lockheed Martin
Story coverage around Lockheed Martin often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Lockheed Martin Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Lockheed Martin is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 231.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.1 B |
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