Kasikornbank Public Pink Sheet Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| KPCPY Stock | USD 23.57 0.49 2.12% |
Kasikornbank Public Co's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kasikornbank Public Co on the next trading day is expected to be 23.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.36.When Kasikornbank Public Co prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Kasikornbank Public Co trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Kasikornbank Public observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Double Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Kasikornbank Public Co are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kasikornbank Public Co on the next trading day is expected to be 23.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.38 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.36 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kasikornbank Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kasikornbank Public's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kasikornbank Public | Kasikornbank Public Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Kasikornbank Public Co focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 20.95 and upside around 25.89 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kasikornbank Public pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kasikornbank Public pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0643 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4807 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0194 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.3631 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kasikornbank Public
Bollinger Bands applied to Kasikornbank Pink Sheet price data measure how far Kasikornbank has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Kasikornbank Public's price data.Kasikornbank Public Related Equities
Investors studying Kasikornbank Public often look at related stocks within the Banks—Regional space to gauge pricing and results. Looking at Kasikornbank Public's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. Use these checks as a starting point for deeper study of Kasikornbank Public's strengths and weak spots.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kasikornbank Public Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Kasikornbank Public Co, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of pink sheet behavior. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Kasikornbank Public Co.
Kasikornbank Public Risk Indicators
Analyzing Kasikornbank Public's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for kasikornbank pink sheet. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Kasikornbank Public's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kasikornbank Public
Story coverage around Kasikornbank Public Co often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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The ratio set for Kasikornbank Public connects key financial figures across reports. This helps frame how profit and cash flow relate to overall value.