KB Home Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| KBH Stock | USD 52.95 -0.24 -0.45% |
KB Home's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KB Home on the next trading day is projected to be 52.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.56.When KB Home prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any KB Home trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent KB Home observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference values for KB Home are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KB Home on the next trading day is expected to be 52.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.60 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.56 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KBH Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KB Home's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest KB Home | KB Home Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for KB Home uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 50.69 and upside around 54.99 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KB Home stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KB Home stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.04 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9756 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0165 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 57.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for KB Home
Relative Strength Index values for KBH measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in KB Home's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of KBH Stock daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals.KB Home Related Equities
KB Home's market space within the Consumer Discretionary space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how KB Home's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KB Home Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how KB Home stock is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in KB Home. These signals help validate or refine position timing for KB Home.
KB Home Risk Indicators
The analysis of KB Home's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with KB Home's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of KB Home's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Variance | 5.42 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for KB Home
Coverage intensity for KB Home matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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KB Home Short Properties
A short-interest review of KB Home provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 230.4 M |