Navient SR Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| JSM Stock | USD 19.02 -0.14 -0.73% |
Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
The hype-based summary links Navient SR attention patterns with price response and peers.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Navient SR on the next trading day is expected to be 19.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.57.Navient SR after-hype prediction price | $ 19.02 |
Attention metrics here are presented with forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navient SR provides a cross-check on projections for Navient SR. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Navient SR Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Navient price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Navient using various technical indicators. When you analyze Navient charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Navient SR on the next trading day is expected to be 19.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.57 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Navient Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Navient SR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Navient SR | Navient SR Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Navient SR uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Navient SR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Navient SR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.5509 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0072 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1114 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0057 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.575 |
Mean reversion in Navient SR is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Investors who rely solely on expected value estimates for Navient SR miss the full picture. Navient SR's probability distribution reveals that expected value can be achieved through very different combinations of outcomes, each with different risk implications.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-news price analysis for Navient SR is built on the observation that Navient SR's market reactions to news are not random but follow recognizable patterns. Navient SR's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.41 and 19.63, respectively. Identifying and quantifying these patterns for Navient SR is the core purpose of this model.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Navient SR assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Navient SR is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Navient SR backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Navient SR, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.61 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events | 6 Events | In 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.02 | 19.02 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 12th of March 2026 Navient SR is traded for 19.02. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Navient is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Navient SR is about 237.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.01. The company last dividend was issued on the 16th of March 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in 8 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navient SR provides a cross-check on projections for Navient SR. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The information ratio and semi-deviation metrics in the peer comparison table for Navient SR provide a risk-adjusted view of how efficiently Navient SR's competitors convert news exposure into returns relative to downside risk.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NNI | Nelnet Inc | -0.53 | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 2.01 | -2.15 | 7.53 | |
| CACC | Credit Acceptance | -0.89 | 20 per month | 2.00 | 0.07 | 3.16 | -3.36 | 15.42 | |
| SLM | SLM Corp | -0.32 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.15 | 3.51 | -4.13 | 17.12 | |
| RJF | Raymond James Financial | 1.46 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 2.22 | -2.72 | 11.78 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | -0.11 | 9 per month | 1.44 | 0.07 | 2.11 | -1.94 | 10.97 | |
| VIRT | Virtu Financial | 0.33 | 9 per month | 1.84 | 0.12 | 3.19 | -3.13 | 13.23 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | -0.37 | 10 per month | 1.41 | 0.03 | 2.55 | -2.32 | 5.64 | |
| AVAL | Grupo Aval | 0.31 | 10 per month | 3.10 | 0.02 | 4.67 | -5.70 | 24.53 | |
| MAIN | Main Street Capital | -1.70 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.05 | 2.59 | -2.42 | 6.68 | |
| ABCB | Ameris Bancorp | -0.75 | 12 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.41 | -2.70 | 9.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Navient SR
For investors considering Navient, Navient SR's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Navient Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Navient SR Related Equities
The following equities are related to Navient SR within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Navient SR against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Navient SR Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Navient SR provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Navient SR.
Navient SR Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Navient SR's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Navient SR's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4317 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.597 | |||
| Variance | 0.3564 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Navient SR
Coverage intensity for Navient SR matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Navient SR Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Navient SR matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 98 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
More Resources for Navient Stock Analysis
Reviewing Navient SR commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Ratios and trend metrics help frame Navient SR's operating context. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Navient SR Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of Navient SR provides a cross-check on projections for Navient SR. The view provides historical context for the projection set. To understand the process of investing in Navient Stock, visit our How to Invest in Navient SR guide.Analysis related to Navient SR should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Dividend Share 0.64 |
Investors evaluate Navient SR using market value and book value, each describing different facets of the business. Navient SR's market capitalization is 5.25 B. Value and price for Navient SR are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.
Value and price for Navient SR are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. For Navient SR, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 15.17, and revenue of 3.11 B. Market price reflects the current exchange level formed by active bids and offers.