James River Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| JRVR Stock | USD 6.42 0.01 0.16% |
This reference page covers Double Exponential Smoothing forecast output for James River Group, including the projected price and deviation metrics. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of James River Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.38.When James River Group prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any James River Group trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent James River observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for James River Group are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of James River Group on the next trading day is expected to be 6.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict James Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that James River's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for James River Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of James River stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent James River stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0306 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1251 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.3813 |
Other Forecasting Options for James River
Price movement is the most critical factor for any investor assessing the potential of James as an investment. The noise inherent in James Stock price charts can obscure the underlying direction and make investment decisions more challenging.James River Related Equities
The following equities are related to James River within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing James River against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
James River Market Strength Events
For investors in James River Group, market strength indicators provide essential context about how the stock responds to prevailing market trends. These tools support more informed decisions about when to trade James River for maximum effect.
James River Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing James River's risk indicators provides investors with important context for price forecasting and investment decision-making. By understanding how much risk is embedded in James River's investment, investors can make better choices about position sizing,.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Variance | 5.87 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for James River
Coverage intensity for James River Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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James River Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to James River Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 60 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
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