Johnson Outdoors Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| JOUT Stock | USD 44.05 -0.20 -0.45% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.731 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.91 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.42 | Wall Street Target Price 55 |
The summary pairs Johnson Outdoors' headline activity with price response context.
Relative Strength Index: Johnson
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 43.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.33.News Attention and Price Pattern for Johnson Outdoors
Public headlines and social commentary around Johnson Outdoors influence how investors perceive risk and opportunity. Quantifying Johnson Outdoors' sentiment makes these subjective biases actionable within a systematic trading framework.
Investor sentiment toward Johnson Outdoors acts as a feedback loop: positive news drives price up, which generates more positive sentiment, attracting more buyers. Understanding where this cycle stands helps investors avoid chasing stocks near peaks.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 43.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.33.Johnson Outdoors after-hype prediction price | $ 44.1 |
Sentiment indicators are framed alongside forecasting, technical analysis, analyst estimates, and momentum.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Outdoors provides a cross-check on projections for Johnson Outdoors. The historical view provides additional context.Johnson Outdoors Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Johnson price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Johnson using various technical indicators. When you analyze Johnson charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Johnson Outdoors on the next trading day is expected to be 43.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.89 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.22 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.33 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Johnson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Johnson Outdoors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Johnson Outdoors | Johnson Outdoors Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Johnson Outdoors uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Johnson Outdoors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Johnson Outdoors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1965 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8888 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 53.3286 |
Mean reversion in Johnson Outdoors is distinct from trend following. Where trend followers ride price momentum, mean reversion investors bet that extended moves will reverse once the underlying driver runs out of fuel.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Probability distribution analysis for Johnson Outdoors provides an objective framework for evaluating risk/reward tradeoffs. By comparing the width of Johnson Outdoors' upside distribution against the downside, investors can make more calibrated position sizing decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The empirical analysis of Johnson Outdoors' news impact provides an evidence-based estimate of potential price movement around upcoming announcements. Johnson Outdoors' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 41.84 and 46.36, respectively. This estimate is conditional on the type and significance of the news event and should be interpreted in that context for Johnson Outdoors.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Johnson Outdoors assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Johnson Outdoors is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Johnson Outdoors backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Johnson Outdoors, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.26 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 16 Events | 7 Events | In 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.05 | 44.10 | 0.11 |
|
Hype Timeline
Johnson Outdoors is currently traded for 44.05. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Johnson is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 44.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Johnson Outdoors is about 28250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.05. The company reported previous year's revenue of 592.41 M. Net Loss for the year was -34.29 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 227.52 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 16 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of Johnson Outdoors provides a cross-check on projections for Johnson Outdoors. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
By analyzing how Johnson Outdoors' sector peers have historically reacted to different types of news, investors can build a mental model of the sentiment dynamics that typically precede changes in Johnson Outdoors's own price.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PACK | Ranpak Holdings Corp | -0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.1 | 5.08 | -5.36 | 36.96 | |
| HYLN | Hyliion Holdings Corp | -0.08 | 7 per month | 3.78 | 0.06 | 6.47 | -5.15 | 21.40 | |
| KFS | Kingsway Financial Services | -0.53 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 2.90 | -4.17 | 20.86 | |
| HLLY | Holley Inc | -0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 4.82 | -5.06 | 17.92 | |
| MNRO | Monro Muffler Brake | 0.16 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.09 | 4.56 | -5.11 | 18.76 | |
| VFS | VinFast Auto Ltd | 0.41 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 2.90 | -3.60 | 9.34 | |
| CAL | Caleres | -0.44 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 4.98 | -6.03 | 18.10 | |
| INVZ | Innoviz Technologies | -0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 7.06 | -6.76 | 34.88 | |
| NATH | Nathans Famous | 0.41 | 8 per month | 0.56 | 0.16 | 2.04 | -1.43 | 9.30 | |
| GCO | Genesco | 0.29 | 7 per month | 3.13 | 0.05 | 7.52 | -4.30 | 20.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for Johnson Outdoors
Investors evaluating Johnson at any level need to understand the significance of Johnson Outdoors' price movement for their investment outcomes. The presence of noise in Johnson Stock price charts demands careful analysis to avoid misinterpreting short-term fluctuations as trends.Johnson Outdoors Related Equities
The following equities are related to Johnson Outdoors within the Consumer Discretionary space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Johnson Outdoors against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Johnson Outdoors Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Johnson Outdoors help investors evaluate how the stock tracks overall market momentum and conditions. These signals are used to determine optimal timing for entering or exiting Johnson Outdoors positions.
| Accumulation Distribution | 606.93 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.24 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 43.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 44.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.20 |
Johnson Outdoors Risk Indicators
The assessment of Johnson Outdoors' risk indicators plays a key role in forecasting its future price and managing investment exposure. Investors who measure Johnson Outdoors' risk profile carefully are better equipped to decide how to manage their positions.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Variance | 5.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Johnson Outdoors
Coverage intensity for Johnson Outdoors matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Johnson Outdoors Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Johnson Outdoors matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 176.4 M |
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