John Marshall Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| JMSB Stock | USD 19.60 -0.09 -0.46% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.247 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.95 | Wall Street Target Price 23 |
The hype-based summary links John Marshall Bancorp attention patterns with price response and peers. This module tracks sentiment for John Marshall using options positioning and short interest signals.
Comprehensive financial disclosures appear in Dividend Yield and Price To Sales Ratio.
John Marshall Implied Volatility | 1.47 |
John Marshall's implied volatility tends to be mean-reverting. Periods of extremely high implied volatility in John Marshall options are often followed by a contraction as uncertainty resolves, eroding the value of recently purchased options.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of John Marshall Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.18.John Marshall after-hype prediction price | $ 19.63 |
Attention metrics here are presented with forecasting, technical, analyst, and earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of John Marshall provides a cross-check on projections for John Marshall. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 Summary for current John contract - Volatility Context
Rule 16 converts implied volatility into an estimated daily move of about 0.0919% for 2026-03-20 options. With John Marshall trading near $ 19.6, that translates to about $ 0.018 per day in either direction.
John Open Interest: 2026-03-20 Options
Open interest for John Marshall describes outstanding contracts and gives a view of market engagement.
John Marshall Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine John price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for John using various technical indicators. When you analyze John charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of John Marshall Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.11 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.18 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict John Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that John Marshall's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest John Marshall | John Marshall Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for John Marshall Bancorp uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of John Marshall stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent John Marshall stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0828 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0328 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.253 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0126 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.18 |
Mean reversion in John Marshall is more reliable over longer time horizons. Short-term deviations can persist and even widen before correcting, making position sizing and risk management critical.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Investors who rely solely on expected value estimates for John Marshall miss the full picture. John Marshall's probability distribution reveals that expected value can be achieved through very different combinations of outcomes, each with different risk implications.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The after-news price analysis for John Marshall is built on the observation that John Marshall's market reactions to news are not random but follow recognizable patterns. John Marshall's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.08 and 21.18, respectively. Identifying and quantifying these patterns for John Marshall is the core purpose of this model.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to John Marshall Bancorp assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as John Marshall is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading John Marshall backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with John Marshall, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.55 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 7 Events | 6 Events | In 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.60 | 19.63 | 0.15 |
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Hype Timeline
John Marshall Bancorp is currently traded for 19.60. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. John is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on John Marshall is about 2460.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.59. The company reported previous year's revenue of 115.33 M. Net Income was 21.23 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 60.95 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in 7 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of John Marshall provides a cross-check on projections for John Marshall. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The information ratio and semi-deviation metrics in the peer comparison table for John Marshall provide a risk-adjusted view of how efficiently John Marshall's competitors convert news exposure into returns relative to downside risk.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MBCN | Middlefield Banc | -0.12 | 8 per month | 2.08 | 0.03 | 3.57 | -3.15 | 11.24 | |
| FINW | Finwise Bancorp | 0.23 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 2.25 | -2.79 | 12.64 | |
| FNLC | First Bancorp | -0.48 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.08 | 2.70 | -2.78 | 8.15 | |
| ISBA | Isabella Bank | -0.06 | 27 per month | 0.00 | 0.0043 | 4.10 | -3.74 | 14.67 | |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp | 0.26 | 9 per month | 1.10 | 0.14 | 2.97 | -1.52 | 9.08 | |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | -0.34 | 11 per month | 1.00 | 0.12 | 2.15 | -1.82 | 15.03 | |
| WSBF | Waterstone Financial | -0.51 | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.11 | 2.57 | -2.69 | 11.36 | |
| NECB | Northeast Community Bancorp | 0.12 | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.09 | 3.21 | -1.83 | 7.58 | |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services | 0.87 | 9 per month | 1.98 | 0.07 | 3.33 | -3.45 | 10.63 | |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp | -0.60 | 3 per month | 1.07 | 0.13 | 3.41 | -2.04 | 8.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for John Marshall
For investors considering John, John Marshall's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in John Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.John Marshall Related Equities
The following equities are related to John Marshall within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing John Marshall against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
John Marshall Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for John Marshall provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in John Marshall Bancorp.
| Accumulation Distribution | 636.41 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.21 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.82 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.26 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.09 |
John Marshall Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of John Marshall's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in John Marshall's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for John Marshall
Coverage intensity for John Marshall Bancorp matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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John Marshall Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to John Marshall Bancorp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.2 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -4.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 135.7 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.39 |
More Resources for John Stock Analysis
Reviewing John Marshall Bancorp commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Ratios and trend metrics help frame John Marshall's operating context. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for John Marshall Bancorp Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of John Marshall provides a cross-check on projections for John Marshall. The view provides historical context for the projection set. Analysis related to John Marshall should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.247 | Dividend Share 0.3 | Earnings Share 1.49 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.119 |
Investors evaluate John Marshall Bancorp using market value and book value, each describing different facets of the business. John Marshall's market capitalization is 279.69 M. A P/B ratio of 1.06 indicates the market values John Marshall above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 234.26 M. Value and price for John Marshall are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.
Value and price for John Marshall are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. For John Marshall, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 20.8, a P/B ratio of 1.06, a profit margin of 34.84%, and ROE of 8.29%. Market price reflects the current exchange level formed by active bids and offers.