PERKINS MID Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| JDPRX Fund | USD 15.33 -0.26 -1.67% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for PERKINS MID is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Perkins Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.27.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Perkins Mid Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PERKINS MID observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Perkins Mid Cap reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Perkins Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 15.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.27 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PERKINS Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PERKINS MID's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest PERKINS MID | PERKINS MID Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates PERKINS MID's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 14.47 and upside around 16.19 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PERKINS MID mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PERKINS MID mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3127 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0018 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1045 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0066 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for PERKINS MID
Fibonacci retracement levels applied to PERKINS Mutual Fund price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in PERKINS occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from PERKINS MID's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.PERKINS MID Related Equities
PERKINS MID's market space within the Mid-Cap Value space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Checking PERKINS MID against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. When PERKINS MID breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring. Tracking PERKINS MID's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
PERKINS MID Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for PERKINS MID provides context for understanding mutual fund momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading PERKINS MID is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Perkins Mid Cap with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Perkins Mid Cap are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.26 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.97 |
PERKINS MID Risk Indicators
Properly assessing PERKINS MID's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding PERKINS MID's. Analyzing PERKINS MID's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in PERKINS MID's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6278 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8542 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8427 | |||
| Variance | 0.7102 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9174 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7296 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.67 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for PERKINS MID
A coverage review of Perkins Mid Cap shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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