IShares Consumer Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| IYC Etf | USD 95.50 -1.44 -1.49% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for iShares Consumer Discretionary. The model output shown here is derived from IShares Consumer's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of iShares Consumer Discretionary on the next trading day is expected to be 95.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.09.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting iShares Consumer Discretionary forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent IShares Consumer observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for iShares Consumer Discretionary is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of iShares Consumer Discretionary on the next trading day is expected to be 95.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.84 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.09 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IShares Consumer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares Consumer | IShares Consumer Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for iShares Consumer Discretionary uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IShares Consumer etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IShares Consumer etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0994 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1692 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7514 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0074 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.0852 |
Other Forecasting Options for IShares Consumer
For every potential investor in IShares, whether a beginner or expert, IShares Consumer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.IShares Consumer Related Equities
The following equities are related to IShares Consumer within the Consumer Cyclical space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing IShares Consumer against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares Consumer Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how IShares Consumer etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading IShares Consumer shares will generate the highest return on.
IShares Consumer Risk Indicators
The analysis of IShares Consumer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in IShares Consumer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6637 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8546 | |||
| Variance | 0.7304 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IShares Consumer
Coverage intensity for iShares Consumer Discretionary matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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More Resources for IShares Etf Analysis
The foundation for reviewing iShares Consumer is its financial reporting and trend data. These measures summarize how the business operates financially. The data captures IShares Consumer's financial activity across reporting cycles.The Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Consumer dataset supports cross-verification of projections for IShares Consumer. Historical trends in IShares Consumer's fundamentals help frame the current projections. The pace of change in historical fundamentals can inform expectations about future trends. Reported accounting figures form the basis of all values shown. At P/E 2.67 and ROE 40.31%, IShares Consumer analysis should be read alongside other portfolio and risk tools before adjusting capital allocation. Within Financial, these signals frame what the supplemental analysis tools below should validate. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Comparing IShares Consumer's market price with book value reveals how market sentiment relates to accounting fundamentals. IShares Consumer's market capitalization is 284.67 M. A P/B ratio of 0.58 suggests IShares Consumer trades near or below book value. Enterprise value stands at 1.58 B. For IShares Consumer, intrinsic value estimation helps reconcile what the market pays with what the books show. These complementary measures help build a more complete analytical foundation.
The concept of value for IShares Consumer differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For IShares Consumer, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 2.67, a P/B ratio of 0.58, ROE of 40.31%, and revenue of 12.39 M. By contrast, IShares Consumer market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact. This overview is based on available data and does not express a directional view.