VY(R) INVESCO Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| IVIPX Fund | USD 31.90 -0.27 -0.84% |
This Simple Exponential Smoothing reference page for Vy Invesco Equity presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vy Invesco Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 31.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.84.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Vy Invesco Equity forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent VY(R) INVESCO observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Vy Invesco Equity are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vy Invesco Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 31.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.84 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VY(R) Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VY(R) INVESCO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VY(R) INVESCO | VY(R) INVESCO Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Vy Invesco Equity for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 31.37 and upside near 32.44.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VY(R) INVESCO mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VY(R) INVESCO mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5639 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0054 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1286 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.004 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.8425 |
Other Forecasting Options for VY(R) INVESCO
Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether VY(R) is a viable investment for any investor. VY(R) Mutual Fund price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.VY(R) INVESCO Related Equities
The following equities are related to VY(R) INVESCO within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing VY(R) INVESCO against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VY(R) INVESCO Market Strength Events
Assessing the market strength of VY(R) INVESCO mutual fund provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Vy Invesco Equity is most likely to be profitable.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 31.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 31.9 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.14 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.27 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.22 |
VY(R) INVESCO Risk Indicators
The analysis of VY(R) INVESCO's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in VY(R) INVESCO's helps investors choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3965 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5813 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5227 | |||
| Variance | 0.2732 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3635 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3379 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VY(R) INVESCO
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Vy Invesco Equity can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.