Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| IRWD Stock | USD 3.04 -0.19 -5.88% |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals's Double Exponential Smoothing reference data is presented on this page, derived from the application of the forecasting model to historical closing prices. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 3.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.34.When Ironwood Pharmaceuticals prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ironwood Pharmaceuticals trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ironwood Pharmaceuticals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing reference information for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 3.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.34 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ironwood Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ironwood Pharmaceuticals | Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.03 and upside near 8.99.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0314 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1752 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0422 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3393 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
For any investor considering Ironwood, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the central factor in determining investment viability. The noise present in Ironwood Stock price charts can distort investment decisions if not properly addressed.Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
The following equities are related to Ironwood Pharmaceuticals within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Ironwood Pharmaceuticals against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals stock help investors evaluate the security's behavior relative to ongoing market conditions. These tools support better market timing and help identify entry and exit signals for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals.
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is a key input for accurate price forecasting and sound investment decisions. Understanding the risk in Ironwood Pharmaceuticals' investment allows investors to make informed choices about accepting or mitigating that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.88 | |||
| Variance | 34.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ironwood Pharmaceuticals
A coverage review of Ironwood Pharmaceuticals shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Ironwood Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Ironwood Pharmaceuticals matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 177.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 215.5 M |