Interoil Exploration Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

IOX Stock  NOK 6.11  -0.65  -9.62%   
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Interoil Exploration and. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Interoil Exploration and on the next trading day is expected to be 6.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.86.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Interoil Exploration observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Interoil Exploration and observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Interoil Exploration and is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for Interoil Exploration - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Interoil Exploration prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Interoil Exploration price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Interoil Exploration and.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Interoil Exploration and on the next trading day is expected to be 6.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.67 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.86 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Interoil Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Interoil Exploration's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Interoil Exploration and uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
6.11
6.36
Expected Value
39.73
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Interoil Exploration stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Interoil Exploration stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.132
MADMean absolute deviation0.3367
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1141
SAESum of the absolute errors19.8646
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Interoil Exploration observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Interoil Exploration and observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Interoil Exploration

Interoil Exploration's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Interoil often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

Interoil Exploration Related Equities

These related stocks within the Energy space give benchmarks for judging Interoil Exploration's results, margins, and growth trend. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Interoil Exploration's peer group.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Interoil Exploration Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Interoil Exploration stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Interoil Exploration and.

Interoil Exploration Risk Indicators

The analysis of Interoil Exploration's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Interoil Exploration's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Interoil Exploration

Coverage intensity for Interoil Exploration and matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

Interoil Exploration Short Properties

A short-interest review of Interoil Exploration and provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding107.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.4 M

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Other Information on Investing in Interoil Stock

Key financial relationships within Interoil Exploration are expressed through its ratios. The metrics reflect the most recent disclosures available and are intended for reference only.