Ionis Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| IONS Stock | USD 71.32 -0.35 -0.49% |
Ionis Pharmaceuticals's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics derived from daily trading data. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ionis Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 70.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.52.When Ionis Pharmaceuticals prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ionis Pharmaceuticals trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ionis Pharmaceuticals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Ionis Pharmaceuticals is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ionis Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 70.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.85 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.52 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ionis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ionis Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ionis Pharmaceuticals | Ionis Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Ionis Pharmaceuticals focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ionis Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ionis Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3081 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3586 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.017 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 81.5187 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ionis Pharmaceuticals
The movement of Ionis price is the central consideration for investors deciding whether to enter or hold a position. Noise in Ionis Stock price charts can make it difficult to distinguish meaningful trends from random fluctuations.Ionis Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
The following equities are related to Ionis Pharmaceuticals within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Ionis Pharmaceuticals against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Investors use market strength indicators for Ionis Pharmaceuticals to evaluate how the stock performs relative to broader market trends. These indicators support more precise timing of Ionis Pharmaceuticals positions, helping investors maximize return and minimize poorly-timed trades.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
A careful analysis of Ionis Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators provides context for understanding the risk environment surrounding ionis stock. This understanding is an essential input for forecasting Ionis Pharmaceuticals' future price and for deciding how to manage the associated investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Variance | 3.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ionis Pharmaceuticals
A coverage review of Ionis Pharmaceuticals shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Ionis Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
A short-interest review of Ionis Pharmaceuticals provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 160 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.7 B |
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