ICON BOND Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

IOBZX Fund  USD 8.47  0.01  0.12%   
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Icon Bond Fund. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Icon Bond Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 8.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.46.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ICON BOND observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Icon Bond Fund observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Icon Bond Fund is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for ICON BOND - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When ICON BOND prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in ICON BOND price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Icon Bond Fund.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Icon Bond Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 8.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.46 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ICON Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ICON BOND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

Forecasting Icon Bond Fund for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 8.34 and upside around 8.58 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
8.47
8.46
Expected Value
8.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ICON BOND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ICON BOND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.002
MADMean absolute deviation0.0077
MAPEMean absolute percentage error9.0E-4
SAESum of the absolute errors0.4635
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ICON BOND observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Icon Bond Fund observations.

Other Forecasting Options for ICON BOND

ICON BOND's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in ICON often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

ICON BOND Related Equities

These stocks within the Multisector Bond space are often compared to ICON BOND by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Profit comparisons show whether ICON BOND earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ICON BOND Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how ICON BOND mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Icon Bond Fund.

ICON BOND Risk Indicators

The analysis of ICON BOND's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding ICON BOND's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ICON BOND

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Icon Bond Fund can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.