AMERICAN FUNDS Mutual Fund Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| INPFX Fund | USD 14.06 -0.15 -1.06% |
AMERICAN FUNDS's Polynomial Regression reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Funds Income on the next trading day is expected to be 13.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.72.A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the AMERICAN FUNDS historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm AMERICAN FUNDS's Polynomial Regression reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Funds Income on the next trading day is expected to be 13.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0032 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.72 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMERICAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMERICAN FUNDS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMERICAN FUNDS | AMERICAN FUNDS Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for American Funds Income uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 13.57 on the downside to about 14.36 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMERICAN FUNDS mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMERICAN FUNDS mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3734 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0446 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0031 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.7191 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMERICAN FUNDS
Analyzing AMERICAN FUNDS's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in AMERICAN FUNDS's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.AMERICAN FUNDS Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Allocation--30% to 50% Equity space can help frame AMERICAN FUNDS's pricing and running costs in context. Checking AMERICAN FUNDS against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMERICAN FUNDS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for AMERICAN FUNDS mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade AMERICAN FUNDS.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.15 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 34.27 |
AMERICAN FUNDS Risk Indicators
Assessing AMERICAN FUNDS's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting AMERICAN FUNDS's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2855 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3918 | |||
| Variance | 0.1535 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMERICAN FUNDS
Coverage intensity for American Funds Income matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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