Inovio Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| INO Stock | USD 1.56 0.05 3.31% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Inovio Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 1.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.89. Inovio Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Inovio Pharmaceuticals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Inovio Pharmaceuticals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Inovio Pharmaceuticals fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Inovio Pharmaceuticals' share price is approaching 39. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Inovio Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.46) | EPS Estimate Current Year (2.35) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.51) | Wall Street Target Price 7.6333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.48) |
Using Inovio Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Inovio Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Inovio Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Inovio Pharmaceuticals using Inovio Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Inovio using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Inovio Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
An investor who is long Inovio Pharmaceuticals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Inovio Pharmaceuticals and may potentially protect profits, hedge Inovio Pharmaceuticals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.991 | Short Percent 0.1442 | Short Ratio 5.61 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.4 M | 50 Day MA 1.9242 |
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Inovio Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Inovio. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Inovio can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Inovio Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 3.7 |
Inovio Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Inovio Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Inovio Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Inovio Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 1.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.89.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 1.56 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Inovio Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Inovio Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Inovio Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Inovio Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Inovio Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Inovio Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Inovio Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Inovio. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Inovio price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Inovio using various technical indicators. When you analyze Inovio charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Inovio Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 1.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Inovio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Inovio Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Inovio Pharmaceuticals | Inovio Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Inovio Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Inovio Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.86, respectively. We have considered Inovio Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8156 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0126 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0802 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0397 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.89 |
Predictive Modules for Inovio Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Inovio Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Inovio Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Inovio Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Inovio Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Inovio Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Inovio Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Inovio Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Inovio Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.08 and 6.91, respectively. We have considered Inovio Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Inovio Pharmaceuticals is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Inovio Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Inovio Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Inovio Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Inovio Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 5.30 | 0.14 | 0.53 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.56 | 1.56 | 0.00 |
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Inovio Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Inovio Pharmaceuticals is traded for 1.56. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.53. Inovio is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.63%. %. The volatility of related hype on Inovio Pharmaceuticals is about 635.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.03. About 38.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.72. Inovio Pharmaceuticals had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:12 split on the 25th of January 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Inovio Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Inovio Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Inovio Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Inovio Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Inovio Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Inovio Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ABOS | Acumen Pharmaceuticals | 0.23 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.18 | (7.18) | 25.06 | |
| IRD | Opus Genetics | (0.07) | 10 per month | 3.51 | 0.1 | 6.70 | (6.10) | 26.50 | |
| AGEN | Agenus Inc | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.76 | (6.05) | 35.29 | |
| SEER | Seer Inc | (0.31) | 37 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.41 | (3.06) | 9.98 | |
| SPRO | Spero Therapeutics | (0.04) | 9 per month | 2.69 | 0.03 | 3.64 | (5.04) | 13.07 | |
| FATE | Fate Therapeutics | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.00 | (7.56) | 20.90 | |
| MCRB | Seres Therapeutics | (8.28) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.13 | (7.64) | 54.10 | |
| VTGN | VistaGen Therapeutics | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.93 | (12.80) | 96.59 | |
| ALEC | Alector | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.63 | (8.33) | 58.73 | |
| ACTU | Actuate Therapeutics Common | 0.28 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.40 | (6.74) | 20.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for Inovio Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Inovio, whether a beginner or expert, Inovio Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Inovio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Inovio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Inovio Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Inovio Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Inovio Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Inovio Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Inovio Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Inovio Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Inovio Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Inovio Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Inovio Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting inovio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.28 | |||
| Variance | 27.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Inovio Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Inovio Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Inovio Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Inovio Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Inovio Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Inovio Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Inovio Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Inovio Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Inovio Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Inovio Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Inovio Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 94.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Inovio Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Inovio Stock, please use our How to Invest in Inovio Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Inovio Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Inovio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Inovio Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.72) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.14 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Inovio Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Inovio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Inovio Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Inovio Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Inovio Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Inovio Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Inovio Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Inovio Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Inovio Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.