Inepar SA Preferred Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| INEP4 Preferred Stock | BRL 1.19 0.02 1.71% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Inepar SA is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Inepar SA Indstria on the next trading day is expected to be 1.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.83.When Inepar SA Indstria prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Inepar SA Indstria trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Inepar SA observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Inepar SA presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Inepar SA Indstria on the next trading day is expected to be 1.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0019 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.83 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Inepar Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Inepar SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Inepar SA | Inepar SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Inepar SA's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Inepar SA preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Inepar SA preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0053 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.031 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0267 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.8273 |
Other Forecasting Options for Inepar SA
The distribution of Inepar SA's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Inepar SA's chart that simple price charts miss.Inepar SA Related Equities
Checking Inepar SA against related firms within the Industrials space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Growth rate gaps between Inepar SA and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market. Finding which peers are closest to Inepar SA in business model helps sharpen the comparison. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Inepar SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Inepar SA give insight into the preferred stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Inepar SA Indstria.
Inepar SA Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Inepar SA's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Inepar SA's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.59 | |||
| Variance | 12.88 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.80 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Inepar SA
A coverage review of Inepar SA Indstria shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Inepar SA Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Inepar SA Indstria matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 149.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.4 M |
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