Indonesia Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| INDO Stock | USD 4.59 -0.15 -3.16% |
Predicting Indonesia Energy's future price is a multi-variable problem that combines fundamental signals, technical structure, and market sentiment. This module focuses specifically on the hype and news dimension of that forecast.
At present, the relative strength indicator for Indonesia Energy is 0, signaling extreme oversold conditions. Deeply oversold conditions like this sometimes attract bargain hunters, but can also persist during prolonged declines.Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 10 | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.26 |
This section relates Indonesia Energy headline activity to recent price behavior and peer context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Indonesia Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 4.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.85.Indonesia Energy after-hype prediction price | $ 4.52 |
Hype signals are presented as complementary context to forecasting, technicals, analyst estimates, earnings, and momentum.
Indonesia | Build AI portfolio with Indonesia Stock |
Indonesia Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Indonesia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Indonesia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Indonesia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Indonesia Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 4.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.85 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Indonesia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Indonesia Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Indonesia Energy | Indonesia Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Indonesia Energy uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Indonesia Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Indonesia Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.3358 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0274 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2926 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0684 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.85 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that Indonesia Energy's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for Indonesia Energy visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of Indonesia Energy's outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for Indonesia Energy after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. Indonesia Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.23 and 13.26, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of Indonesia Energy's short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Indonesia Energy assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Indonesia Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Indonesia Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Indonesia Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.13 | 8.74 | 0.07 | 0.32 | 7 Events | 5 Events | In 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.59 | 4.52 | 1.53 |
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Hype Timeline
Indonesia Energy is currently traded for 4.59. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.32. Indonesia is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.52. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.53%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.13%. The volatility of related hype on Indonesia Energy is about 3055.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.91. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Indonesia Energy was currently reported as 1.46. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.48. Indonesia Energy had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 7 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Indonesia Energy to cross-verify projections for Indonesia Energy. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between Indonesia Energy and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across Indonesia Energy's competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate Indonesia Energy's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| USEG | US Energy Corp | 0.04 | 9 per month | 4.89 | 0.05 | 7.61 | -6.09 | 46.73 | |
| PED | PEDEVCO Corp | -0.13 | 8 per month | 4.03 | 0.16 | 11.95 | -7.00 | 32.02 | |
| KLXE | KLX Energy Services | -0.26 | 8 per month | 5.96 | 0.14 | 14.41 | -9.79 | 32.97 | |
| SMXT | Solarmax Technology Common | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 11.29 | -10.20 | 29.70 | |
| VVPR | VivoPower International PLC | -0.02 | 8 per month | 7.51 | 0.02 | 15.98 | -11.85 | 62.02 | |
| BATL | Battalion Oil Corp | 2.92 | 6 per month | 8.14 | 0.22 | 35.41 | -16.70 | 244.63 | |
| BANL | CBL International Limited | 0.01 | 9 per month | 5.44 | 0.09 | 10.81 | -9.09 | 58.89 | |
| NINE | Nine Energy Service | 0.01 | 8 per month | 19.94 | 0.02 | 20.00 | -30.22 | 227.54 | |
| MXC | Mexco Energy | 0.33 | 7 per month | 5.37 | 0.12 | 13.15 | -7.22 | 40.63 | |
| TMDE | TMD Energy Limited | -0.06 | 4 per month | 10.16 | 0.14 | 37.56 | -14.81 | 277.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Indonesia Energy
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Indonesia needs to understand the dynamics of Indonesia Energy's price movement. Price charts for Indonesia Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Indonesia Energy Related Equities
The following equities are related to Indonesia Energy within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Indonesia Energy against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Indonesia Energy Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Indonesia Energy enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Indonesia Energy.
| Accumulation Distribution | 179860.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.50 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.15 |
Indonesia Energy Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Indonesia Energy's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with Indonesia Energy's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 6.42 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.41 | |||
| Variance | 70.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 67.5 | |||
| Semi Variance | 56.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -7.25 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Indonesia Energy
Coverage intensity for Indonesia Energy matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Indonesia Energy Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Indonesia Energy matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.6 M |
More Resources for Indonesia Stock Analysis
A structured review of Indonesia Energy often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Below are reports that help frame Indonesia Energy Stock in context:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Indonesia Energy to cross-verify projections for Indonesia Energy. The historical view provides additional context. For more information on how to buy Indonesia Stock please use our How to Buy Indonesia Stock guide.Analysis related to Indonesia Energy should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Earnings Share -0.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth -0.26 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Indonesia Energy is measured differently than book value, which reflects Indonesia accounting equity. Indonesia Energy's market capitalization is 71.04 M. With a P/B ratio of 3.26, the market values Indonesia Energy well above its book equity. Enterprise value stands at 63.63 M. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
Note that Indonesia Energy's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Indonesia Energy, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 3.26, ROE of -40.39%, and revenue of 2.67 M. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.