ChipMOS Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| IMOS Stock | USD 41.80 0.73 1.72% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ChipMOS Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 43.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.79. ChipMOS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of ChipMOS Technologies' share price is above 70 at this time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling ChipMOS, making its price go up or down. Momentum 71
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.215 | Wall Street Target Price 20 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.012 |
Using ChipMOS Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ChipMOS Technologies from the perspective of ChipMOS Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ChipMOS Technologies using ChipMOS Technologies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ChipMOS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ChipMOS Technologies' stock price.
ChipMOS Technologies Implied Volatility | 1.02 |
ChipMOS Technologies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ChipMOS Technologies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ChipMOS Technologies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ChipMOS Technologies stock will not fluctuate a lot when ChipMOS Technologies' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ChipMOS Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 43.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.79. ChipMOS Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 41.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ChipMOS Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ChipMOS contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ChipMOS Technologies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0638% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With ChipMOS Technologies trading at USD 41.8, that is roughly USD 0.0266 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ChipMOS Technologies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ChipMOS Technologies options at the current volatility level of 1.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 ChipMOS Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ChipMOS Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ChipMOS Technologies' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ChipMOS Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ChipMOS Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to ChipMOS Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ChipMOS Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ChipMOS. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ChipMOS Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ChipMOS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ChipMOS using various technical indicators. When you analyze ChipMOS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the ChipMOS Technologies' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-09-30 | Previous Quarter 13.7 B | Current Value 13 B | Quarterly Volatility 4.1 B |
ChipMOS Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ChipMOS Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 43.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.06, mean absolute percentage error of 1.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ChipMOS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ChipMOS Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ChipMOS Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ChipMOS Technologies | ChipMOS Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ChipMOS Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ChipMOS Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ChipMOS Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.26 and 47.82, respectively. We have considered ChipMOS Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ChipMOS Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ChipMOS Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5268 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0611 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0373 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.7852 |
Predictive Modules for ChipMOS Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ChipMOS Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ChipMOS Technologies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ChipMOS Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ChipMOS Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ChipMOS Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ChipMOS Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ChipMOS Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ChipMOS Technologies' historical news coverage. ChipMOS Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.53 and 46.07, respectively. We have considered ChipMOS Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ChipMOS Technologies is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ChipMOS Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
ChipMOS Technologies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ChipMOS Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ChipMOS Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ChipMOS Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.21 | 4.28 | 2.00 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
41.80 | 41.80 | 0.00 |
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ChipMOS Technologies Hype Timeline
ChipMOS Technologies is currently traded for 41.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.0, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. ChipMOS is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on ChipMOS Technologies is about 17120.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.77. The book value of the company was currently reported as 1.05. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.13. ChipMOS Technologies last dividend was issued on the 27th of June 2025. The entity had 10000:9355 split on the 31st of October 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ChipMOS Technologies to cross-verify your projections.ChipMOS Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ChipMOS Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ChipMOS Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how ChipMOS Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ChipMOS Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEHR | Aehr Test Systems | (0.23) | 8 per month | 4.45 | 0.07 | 9.76 | (7.93) | 27.00 | |
| SKYT | Skywater Technology | (0.23) | 15 per month | 5.53 | 0.17 | 12.40 | (9.12) | 48.91 | |
| ICHR | Ichor Holdings | (0.23) | 25 per month | 6.80 | 0.12 | 6.85 | (6.57) | 36.36 | |
| AOSL | Alpha and Omega | 1.09 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.18 | (6.22) | 32.38 | |
| LAES | SEALSQ Corp | (0.16) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 11.34 | (8.80) | 35.63 | |
| VTEX | VTEX | 0.17 | 27 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.58 | (4.49) | 16.08 | |
| GILT | Gilat Satellite Networks | 0.03 | 6 per month | 2.77 | 0.11 | 6.71 | (4.56) | 15.78 | |
| GDYN | Grid Dynamics Holdings | 0.18 | 16 per month | 2.33 | 0.05 | 5.80 | (4.18) | 27.91 | |
| IBTA | Ibotta | (1.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.14 | (6.44) | 33.30 | |
| WOLF | Wolfspeed | 0.27 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 9.02 | (7.83) | 22.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for ChipMOS Technologies
For every potential investor in ChipMOS, whether a beginner or expert, ChipMOS Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ChipMOS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ChipMOS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ChipMOS Technologies' price trends.ChipMOS Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ChipMOS Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ChipMOS Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ChipMOS Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ChipMOS Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ChipMOS Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ChipMOS Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ChipMOS Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ChipMOS Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 763.89 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.77) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.55) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.73) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 71.07 |
ChipMOS Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of ChipMOS Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ChipMOS Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting chipmos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.16 | |||
| Variance | 17.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.49 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.88 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ChipMOS Technologies
The number of cover stories for ChipMOS Technologies depends on current market conditions and ChipMOS Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ChipMOS Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ChipMOS Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ChipMOS Technologies Short Properties
ChipMOS Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when ChipMOS Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ChipMOS Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ChipMOS Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ChipMOS Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 36.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.3 B |
Additional Tools for ChipMOS Stock Analysis
When running ChipMOS Technologies' price analysis, check to measure ChipMOS Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ChipMOS Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of ChipMOS Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ChipMOS Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ChipMOS Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ChipMOS Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.