Imperial Oil Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| IMO Stock | USD 99.21 0.99 0.99% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Imperial Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 91.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 254.35. Imperial Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Imperial Oil's stock price is about 61. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Imperial, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Imperial Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Imperial Oil from the perspective of Imperial Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Imperial Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 91.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 254.35. Imperial Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 99.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imperial Oil to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.Imperial Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Imperial price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Imperial using various technical indicators. When you analyze Imperial charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Imperial Oil Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Imperial Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 91.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.17, mean absolute percentage error of 22.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 254.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Imperial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Imperial Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Imperial Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Imperial Oil | Imperial Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Imperial Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Imperial Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Imperial Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 89.66 and 93.23, respectively. We have considered Imperial Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Imperial Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Imperial Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.2279 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.1697 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0453 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 254.3514 |
Predictive Modules for Imperial Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Imperial Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Imperial Oil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Imperial Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Imperial Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Imperial Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Imperial Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Imperial Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Imperial Oil's historical news coverage. Imperial Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 97.42 and 101.00, respectively. We have considered Imperial Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Imperial Oil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Imperial Oil is based on 3 months time horizon.
Imperial Oil Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Imperial Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Imperial Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Imperial Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.79 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
99.21 | 99.21 | 0.00 |
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Imperial Oil Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Imperial Oil is traded for 99.21. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Imperial is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Imperial Oil is about 1356.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 99.23. About 73.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Imperial Oil was currently reported as 34.45. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.85. Imperial Oil recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.66. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of December 2025. The firm had 3:1 split on the 30th of May 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imperial Oil to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.Imperial Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Imperial Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Imperial Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Imperial Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Imperial Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SU | Suncor Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.77 | 0.21 | 2.77 | (1.62) | 7.60 | |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.76 | (2.08) | 4.88 | |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.88 | 0.08 | 3.51 | (3.68) | 8.14 | |
| TRP | TC Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.76 | 0.06 | 2.09 | (1.30) | 5.93 | |
| OKE | ONEOK Inc | 0.09 | 3 per month | 1.30 | 0.1 | 2.45 | (2.33) | 6.82 | |
| E | Eni SpA ADR | (0.95) | 12 per month | 1.21 | 0.01 | 1.81 | (2.26) | 6.47 | |
| MPLX | MPLX LP | 0.09 | 9 per month | 0.82 | 0.12 | 1.73 | (1.73) | 4.74 | |
| CVE | Cenovus Energy | 0.67 | 11 per month | 1.79 | 0.03 | 3.72 | (2.43) | 8.79 | |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy | 1.33 | 9 per month | 1.61 | 0.03 | 3.34 | (2.78) | 8.02 | |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum | 0.09 | 3 per month | 1.50 | 0.0009 | 3.01 | (2.59) | 8.06 |
Other Forecasting Options for Imperial Oil
For every potential investor in Imperial, whether a beginner or expert, Imperial Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Imperial Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Imperial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Imperial Oil's price trends.Imperial Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Imperial Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Imperial Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Imperial Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Imperial Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Imperial Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Imperial Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Imperial Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Imperial Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6024.9 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.51) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 99.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 99.35 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.70) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.99) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 61.74 |
Imperial Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Imperial Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Imperial Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting imperial stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Imperial Oil
The number of cover stories for Imperial Oil depends on current market conditions and Imperial Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Imperial Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Imperial Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Imperial Oil Short Properties
Imperial Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Imperial Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Imperial Oil often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Imperial Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Imperial Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 530.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 979 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Imperial Oil to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Imperial Oil. If investors know Imperial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Imperial Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Imperial Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Imperial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Imperial Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Imperial Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Imperial Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Imperial Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Imperial Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Imperial Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Imperial Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.