CONGRESS MID Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| IMIDX Fund | USD 19.20 -0.45 -2.29% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Congress Mid Cap is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Congress Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 19.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.91.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Congress Mid Cap forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent CONGRESS MID observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Congress Mid Cap are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Congress Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 19.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.91 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CONGRESS Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CONGRESS MID's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CONGRESS MID | CONGRESS MID Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Congress Mid Cap focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 18.06 and upside near 20.39.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CONGRESS MID mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CONGRESS MID mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3391 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0062 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1818 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0091 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.9077 |
Other Forecasting Options for CONGRESS MID
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering CONGRESS needs to understand the dynamics of CONGRESS MID's price movement. Price charts for CONGRESS Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.CONGRESS MID Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of CONGRESS MID within the Mid-Cap Growth space and offer context for ranking and strength. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across CONGRESS MID's peer group. Finding which peers are closest to CONGRESS MID in business model helps sharpen the comparison. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging CONGRESS MID's standing among rivals.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CONGRESS MID Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for CONGRESS MID enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Congress Mid Cap.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.22 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.45 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.57 |
CONGRESS MID Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing CONGRESS MID's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with CONGRESS MID's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8966 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Variance | 1.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CONGRESS MID
A coverage review of Congress Mid Cap shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.