IShares Latin ETF Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ILF ETF | USD 34.28 0.00 0.00% |
This reference view applies Double Exponential Smoothing to iShares Latin America's historical closing prices. iShares Latin America's Double Exponential Smoothing reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics from daily trading data. iShares Latin America's forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. Mean absolute deviation and related metrics help quantify forecast uncertainty for iShares Latin America.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of iShares Latin America on the next trading day is expected to be 34.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.99.When iShares Latin America prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any iShares Latin America trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent IShares Latin observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. All forecast values on this page for iShares Latin America are Double Exponential Smoothing reference data derived from historical price series. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of iShares Latin America on the next trading day is expected to be 34.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.45 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.99 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict IShares ETF prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that IShares Latin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest IShares Latin | IShares Latin Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for iShares Latin America uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of IShares Latin ETF data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent IShares Latin ETF, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.041 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5422 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0157 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.9897 |
Other Forecasting Options for IShares Latin
Volume-weighted price analysis for IShares ETF gives heavier weight to price levels where trading activity was highest. Crossovers in the MACD line and signal line can identify shifts in IShares momentum before they appear in raw price. Comparing IShares Latin's realized volatility to implied volatility reveals whether the options market expects larger or smaller moves. Readings above 80 or below 20 highlight potential reversal zones in IShares ETF price action.IShares Latin Related Equities
These stocks within the Latin America Stock space are often compared to IShares Latin by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for IShares Latin's results.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
IShares Latin Market Strength Events
Evaluating the market strength of IShares Latin ETF allows investors to gauge shifts in market momentum. Monitoring these indicators highlights periods where iShares Latin America trading conditions shift meaningfully. These metrics are particularly useful when IShares Latin ETF shows divergence from broader market trends. Regularly reviewing iShares Latin America strength signals helps maintain a structured approach to position management.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0186 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.5 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.32 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.29 |
IShares Latin Risk Indicators
Understanding IShares Latin's risk indicators is essential for any investor seeking to forecast its future price accurately. By identifying how much risk is embedded in IShares Latin's investment, investors can decide how to position their exposure. Reviewing IShares Latin's basic risk indicators is essential for managing investment risk effectively. The risk-return trade-off for ishares etf becomes clearer when IShares Latin's risk indicators are properly assessed.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Variance | 3.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.33 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for IShares Latin
Story coverage around iShares Latin America often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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More Resources for IShares ETF Analysis
Analysis of iShares Latin America often begins with its portfolio holdings and historical return patterns. Metrics connect expense ratio, tracking precision, and portfolio construction quality.Projections for IShares Latin can be cross-referenced against Historical Fundamental Analysis of IShares Latin data. Investors get more value from IShares Latin analysis when it is combined with other fund comparison and allocation tools. Checking IShares Latin against category peers and portfolio fit tools below produces a more complete investment picture. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
IShares Latin's market price and NAV each provide useful but distinct information about the fund. Together, market price, NAV, and fund metrics form a multi-dimensional view.
Market price and NAV for IShares Latin can move independently over short periods. IShares Latin's market price is the outcome of continuous interaction between buyers and sellers.