Innovative Industrial Stock Forward View

IIPR Stock  USD 52.09  -0.26  -0.50%   
Innovative Industrial Properties's Naive Prediction reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovative Industrial Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 49.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.06.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Innovative Industrial Properties. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Innovative Industrial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. All Naive Prediction forecast figures shown for Innovative Industrial Properties are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.

Innovative Industrial Cash Forecast

Financial forecasting for Innovative Industrial applies quantitative methods to Innovative Industrial's historical cash flow data. Revenue trends, working capital cycles, and capital expenditure patterns are embedded in Innovative Industrial's historical statements.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2016-09-30
 Previous Quarter
36.7 M
 Current Value
47.6 M
 Quarterly Volatility
47.9 M
Macro event markers
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Innovative Industrial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Innovative Industrial Properties value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovative Industrial Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 49.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 2.41 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 74.06 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Innovative Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Innovative Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Innovative Industrial  Innovative Industrial Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Forecasting Innovative Industrial Properties for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The current forecast range spans downside near 47.45 and upside near 52.03.
Market Value
52.09
49.74
Expected Value
52.03
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Innovative Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Innovative Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.8271
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1945
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0239
SAESum of the absolute errors74.0592
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Innovative Industrial Properties. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Innovative Industrial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for Innovative Industrial

Bollinger Bands applied to Innovative Stock price data measure how far Innovative has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Innovative Industrial's price data.

Innovative Industrial Related Equities

Innovative Industrial's market space within the Real Estate space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Market cap and total value checks frame Innovative Industrial's size within the competitive field. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Innovative Industrial Market Strength Events

For investors tracking Innovative Industrial Properties, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Innovative Industrial Properties positions.

Innovative Industrial Risk Indicators

Analyzing Innovative Industrial's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for innovative stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Innovative Industrial's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Innovative Industrial

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Innovative Industrial Properties can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Innovative Industrial Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Innovative Industrial Properties can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding28.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments47.6 M

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