Innovative Industrial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

IIPR Stock  USD 49.65  0.06  0.12%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovative Industrial Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 52.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.85. Innovative Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Innovative Industrial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Innovative Industrial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Innovative Industrial fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Innovative Industrial's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Innovative Industrial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Innovative Industrial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Innovative Industrial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Innovative Industrial Properties, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Innovative Industrial's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.29)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.9267
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.9533
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.2933
Wall Street Target Price
57.25
Using Innovative Industrial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Innovative Industrial Properties from the perspective of Innovative Industrial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Innovative Industrial using Innovative Industrial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Innovative using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Innovative Industrial's stock price.

Innovative Industrial Short Interest

An investor who is long Innovative Industrial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Innovative Industrial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Innovative Industrial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
53.3682
Short Percent
0.1617
Short Ratio
5.78
Shares Short Prior Month
2.4 M
50 Day MA
50.6348

Innovative Industrial Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Innovative Industrial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Innovative. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Innovative can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Innovative Industrial Properties. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.

Innovative Industrial Implied Volatility

    
  0.57  
Innovative Industrial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Innovative Industrial Properties stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Innovative Industrial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Innovative Industrial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Innovative Industrial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovative Industrial Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 52.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.85.

Innovative Industrial after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 49.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovative Industrial to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Innovative contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Innovative Industrial Properties will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0356% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Innovative Industrial trading at USD 49.65, that is roughly USD 0.0177 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Innovative Industrial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Innovative Industrial Properties options at the current volatility level of 0.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Innovative Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Innovative Industrial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Innovative Industrial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Innovative Industrial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Innovative Industrial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Innovative Industrial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Innovative Industrial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Innovative. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Innovative Industrial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Innovative price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Innovative using various technical indicators. When you analyze Innovative charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Innovative Industrial Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Innovative Industrial's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2016-09-30
Previous Quarter
99.7 M
Current Value
36.7 M
Quarterly Volatility
48.3 M
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Innovative Industrial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Innovative Industrial Properties value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Innovative Industrial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Innovative Industrial Properties on the next trading day is expected to be 52.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54, mean absolute percentage error of 3.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Innovative Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Innovative Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Innovative Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Innovative IndustrialInnovative Industrial Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Innovative Industrial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Innovative Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Innovative Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.20 and 55.68, respectively. We have considered Innovative Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
49.65
52.94
Expected Value
55.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Innovative Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Innovative Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4672
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5385
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.031
SAESum of the absolute errors93.8481
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Innovative Industrial Properties. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Innovative Industrial. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Innovative Industrial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Innovative Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
46.9149.6552.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
46.8649.5952.34
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
45.7350.1754.62
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
52.1057.2563.55
Details

Innovative Industrial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Innovative Industrial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Innovative Industrial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Innovative Industrial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Innovative Industrial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Innovative Industrial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Innovative Industrial's historical news coverage. Innovative Industrial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.91 and 52.39, respectively. We have considered Innovative Industrial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
49.65
49.65
After-hype Price
52.39
Upside
Innovative Industrial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Innovative Industrial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Innovative Industrial Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Innovative Industrial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Innovative Industrial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Innovative Industrial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
2.74
  0.03 
 0.00  
12 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 12 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
49.65
49.65
0.00 
91.03  
Notes

Innovative Industrial Hype Timeline

Innovative Industrial is currently traded for 49.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Innovative is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 91.03%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Innovative Industrial is about 7405.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 49.65. About 69.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.78. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Innovative Industrial last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 12 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Innovative Industrial to cross-verify your projections.

Innovative Industrial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Innovative Industrial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Innovative Industrial's future price movements. Getting to know how Innovative Industrial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Innovative Industrial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ARIApollo Commercial Real 0.13 10 per month 0.00 (0.07) 1.95 (1.72) 4.99 
EFCEllington Financial(0.19)12 per month 0.90 (0) 1.27 (1.36) 6.68 
KREFKKR Real Estate 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 2.67 (2.77) 6.97 
LADRLadder Capital Corp 0.00 0 per month 1.05 (0.02) 1.74 (1.54) 4.94 
TRTXTPG RE Finance 0.02 8 per month 0.97  0.05  2.00 (1.65) 6.00 
EPREPR Properties 0.43 9 per month 1.50 (0.06) 1.90 (1.60) 6.05 
VREVeris Residential(0.05)9 per month 1.38 (0.03) 2.27 (2.46) 5.70 
PLYMPlymouth Industrial REIT 0.00 0 per month 0.60 (0.13) 0.63 (0.45) 5.25 
UMHUMH Properties 0.03 10 per month 0.84  0.1  2.21 (1.69) 4.82 
FORForestar Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.05) 4.69 (3.21) 13.29 

Other Forecasting Options for Innovative Industrial

For every potential investor in Innovative, whether a beginner or expert, Innovative Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Innovative Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Innovative. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Innovative Industrial's price trends.

Innovative Industrial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Innovative Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Innovative Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Innovative Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Innovative Industrial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Innovative Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Innovative Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Innovative Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Innovative Industrial Properties entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Innovative Industrial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Innovative Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Innovative Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting innovative stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Innovative Industrial

The number of cover stories for Innovative Industrial depends on current market conditions and Innovative Industrial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Innovative Industrial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Innovative Industrial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Innovative Industrial Short Properties

Innovative Industrial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Innovative Industrial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Innovative Industrial Properties often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Innovative Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Innovative Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding28.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments146.2 M

Additional Tools for Innovative Stock Analysis

When running Innovative Industrial's price analysis, check to measure Innovative Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Innovative Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of Innovative Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Innovative Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Innovative Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Innovative Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.