Williston Basin/mid-north Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ICPUX Fund | USD 7.41 0.02 0.27% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Williston Basinmid North America on the next trading day is expected to be 7.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66. Williston Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Williston Basin/mid-north's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Williston Basin/mid-north hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Williston Basinmid North America from the perspective of Williston Basin/mid-north response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Williston Basinmid North America on the next trading day is expected to be 7.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66. Williston Basin/mid-north after-hype prediction price | USD 7.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Williston |
Williston Basin/mid-north Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Williston price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Williston using various technical indicators. When you analyze Williston charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Williston Basin/mid-north Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Williston Basinmid North America on the next trading day is expected to be 7.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Williston Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Williston Basin/mid-north's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Williston Basin/mid-north Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Williston Basin/mid-north | Williston Basin/mid-north Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Williston Basin/mid-north Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Williston Basin/mid-north's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Williston Basin/mid-north's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.31 and 8.51, respectively. We have considered Williston Basin/mid-north's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Williston Basin/mid-north mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Williston Basin/mid-north mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.1566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.009 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.061 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.66 |
Predictive Modules for Williston Basin/mid-north
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Williston Basin/mid-north. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Williston Basin/mid-north's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Williston Basin/mid-north After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Williston Basin/mid-north at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Williston Basin/mid-north or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Williston Basin/mid-north, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Williston Basin/mid-north Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Williston Basin/mid-north's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Williston Basin/mid-north's historical news coverage. Williston Basin/mid-north's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.30 and 8.52, respectively. We have considered Williston Basin/mid-north's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Williston Basin/mid-north is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Williston Basin/mid-north is based on 3 months time horizon.
Williston Basin/mid-north Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Williston Basin/mid-north is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Williston Basin/mid-north backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Williston Basin/mid-north, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
7.41 | 7.41 | 0.00 |
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Williston Basin/mid-north Hype Timeline
Williston Basin/mid-north is currently traded for 7.41. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Williston is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Williston Basin/mid-north is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.41. The company last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Williston Basin/mid-north to cross-verify your projections.Williston Basin/mid-north Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Williston Basin/mid-north's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Williston Basin/mid-north's future price movements. Getting to know how Williston Basin/mid-north's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Williston Basin/mid-north may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIDPX | Ishares Municipal Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.68) | 0.27 | (0.09) | 0.64 | |
| NSIOX | Nuveen Strategic Municipal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.57) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.81 | |
| TWTIX | Intermediate Term Tax Free Bond | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.63) | 0.19 | (0.09) | 0.65 | |
| TWACX | Short Term Government Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.88) | 0.11 | (0.11) | 0.33 | |
| FCSCX | Franklin Adjustable Government | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.73) | 0.13 | (0.13) | 0.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for Williston Basin/mid-north
For every potential investor in Williston, whether a beginner or expert, Williston Basin/mid-north's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Williston Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Williston. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Williston Basin/mid-north's price trends.Williston Basin/mid-north Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Williston Basin/mid-north mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Williston Basin/mid-north could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Williston Basin/mid-north by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Williston Basin/mid-north Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Williston Basin/mid-north mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Williston Basin/mid-north shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Williston Basin/mid-north mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Williston Basinmid North America entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Williston Basin/mid-north Risk Indicators
The analysis of Williston Basin/mid-north's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Williston Basin/mid-north's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting williston mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.826 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Williston Basin/mid-north
The number of cover stories for Williston Basin/mid-north depends on current market conditions and Williston Basin/mid-north's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Williston Basin/mid-north is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Williston Basin/mid-north's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Williston Mutual Fund
Williston Basin/mid-north financial ratios help investors to determine whether Williston Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Williston with respect to the benefits of owning Williston Basin/mid-north security.
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