INTREPID CAPITAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ICMBX Fund | USD 13.77 -0.12 -0.86% |
INTREPID CAPITAL's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intrepid Capital Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 13.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.77.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past INTREPID CAPITAL observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Intrepid Capital Fund observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference values for INTREPID CAPITAL are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Intrepid Capital Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 13.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.77 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict INTREPID Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that INTREPID CAPITAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest INTREPID CAPITAL | INTREPID CAPITAL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Intrepid Capital Fund uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 13.18 and upside near 14.30.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of INTREPID CAPITAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent INTREPID CAPITAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.064 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0045 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.7741 |
Other Forecasting Options for INTREPID CAPITAL
Relative Strength Index values for INTREPID measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in INTREPID CAPITAL's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of INTREPID Mutual Fund daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals.INTREPID CAPITAL Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of INTREPID CAPITAL within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space and offer context for ranking and strength. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
INTREPID CAPITAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how INTREPID CAPITAL mutual fund is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Intrepid Capital Fund. Investors tracking INTREPID CAPITAL can use these signals to validate or adjust their position timing.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.12 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.39 |
INTREPID CAPITAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of INTREPID CAPITAL's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with INTREPID CAPITAL's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of INTREPID CAPITAL's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4296 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5431 | |||
| Variance | 0.295 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for INTREPID CAPITAL
Coverage intensity for Intrepid Capital Fund matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.