ICON NATURAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ICBAX Fund | USD 19.59 -0.43 -2.15% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Icon Natural Resources. The model output shown here is derived from ICON NATURAL's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Icon Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 19.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.59.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Icon Natural Resources forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent ICON NATURAL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Icon Natural Resources is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Icon Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 19.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.59 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ICON Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ICON NATURAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Icon Natural Resources uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ICON NATURAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ICON NATURAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.5981 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.032 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2099 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0105 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.594 |
Other Forecasting Options for ICON NATURAL
For every potential investor in ICON, whether a beginner or expert, ICON NATURAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.ICON NATURAL Related Equities
The following equities are related to ICON NATURAL within the Natural Resources space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ICON NATURAL against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ICON NATURAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ICON NATURAL mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ICON NATURAL shares will generate the highest return on.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.59 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.21 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.43 |
ICON NATURAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of ICON NATURAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ICON NATURAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ICON NATURAL
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Icon Natural Resources can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.