VY(R) T Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| IAXAX Fund | USD 7.41 -0.01 -0.13% |
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Vy T Rowe. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vy T Rowe on the next trading day is expected to be 7.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.35.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Vy T Rowe forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent VY(R) T observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Vy T Rowe is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vy T Rowe on the next trading day is expected to be 7.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.35 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VY(R) Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VY(R) T's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Vy T Rowe uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 6.21 on the downside to about 8.61 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VY(R) T mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VY(R) T mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3141 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0114 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0714 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.3548 |
Other Forecasting Options for VY(R) T
VY(R) T's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in VY(R) often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.VY(R) T Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of VY(R) T within the Mid-Cap Growth space and offer context for ranking and strength. Profit comparisons show whether VY(R) T earns above or below average returns next to its peers. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors. This peer set gives the context needed for a well-rounded view of VY(R) T.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VY(R) T Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how VY(R) T mutual fund reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Vy T Rowe.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.88 |
VY(R) T Risk Indicators
The analysis of VY(R) T's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding VY(R) T's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.953 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Variance | 1.41 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VY(R) T
Story coverage around Vy T Rowe often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.