Hercules Capital Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| HTGC Stock | USD 14.04 -0.32 -2.23% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.314 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5004 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.9381 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.9694 | Wall Street Target Price 20.3056 |
Hype-based context for Hercules Capital connects recent headlines with price response and peer activity. This sentiment summary combines Hercules Capital's options data with short interest context.
Short Interest Snapshot - Hercules Capital
Short interest in Hercules Capital is a useful contrarian indicator. Extreme levels of short interest can precede sharp short-covering rallies if positive news surprises the market.
200 Day MA 18.1124 | Short Percent 0.0659 | Short Ratio 3.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.3 M | 50 Day MA 16.9816 |
RSI Overview - Hercules
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Hercules Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 14.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.72.Hype and Price Pattern for Hercules Capital
Hercules Capital's news sentiment aggregates headline tone and social media engagement to build a real-time gauge of investor psychology around Hercules. Sentiment extremes often precede price reversals.
The correlation between Hercules Capital's news sentiment and price provides a measurable basis for market timing. A strong positive correlation suggests sentiment is currently driving price; a negative one may indicate a potential reversal.
Hercules Capital Implied Volatility | 0.98 |
Unlike historical volatility, which measures past price movements, Hercules Capital's implied volatility is a real-time gauge of how much uncertainty the options market is pricing into Hercules Capital's future price action.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Hercules Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 14.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.72.Hercules Capital after-hype prediction price | $ 14.29 |
This sentiment layer is designed to be read with forecasting, technical, analyst, earnings, and momentum context.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hercules Capital to cross-verify projections for Hercules Capital. The historical series provides projection context.Rule 16 for the current Hercules contract - Risk Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0613% for the 2026-05-15 options. The figure is a neutral volatility reference; near $ 14.04, it implies about $ 0.0086 per day.
Open Interest vs. 2026-05-15 Hercules Options
The open interest view shows outstanding Hercules Capital option contracts, providing context on participation and contract flow.
Hercules Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Hercules price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hercules using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hercules charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Hercules Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 14.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.72 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hercules Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hercules Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hercules Capital | Hercules Capital Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Hercules Capital uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hercules Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hercules Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.4317 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1067 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2665 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0167 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.725 |
Mean reversion in Hercules Capital's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Understanding Hercules Capital's probability distribution helps investors calibrate position size to their risk tolerance. The tails of the Hercules Capital distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that naive point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Using Hercules Capital's historical news impact data, we estimate the likely price corridor for the next trading session after a significant headline. Hercules Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.34 and 16.24, respectively. Note that past news reactions for Hercules Capital are not guaranteed to repeat, particularly in novel market environments.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Hercules Capital assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hercules Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hercules Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hercules Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.40 | 1.95 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 10 Events | 11 Events | In 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.04 | 14.29 | 1.78 |
|
Hype Timeline
Hercules Capital is currently traded for 14.04. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Hercules is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 14.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.78%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.4%. The volatility of related hype on Hercules Capital is about 5460.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.03. The company reported previous year's revenue of 547.1 M. Net Loss for the year was -137.34 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 532.49 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 10 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hercules Capital to cross-verify projections for Hercules Capital. The historical series provides projection context.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding how Hercules Capital's direct competitors react to news events helps investors anticipate contagion effects and sector-wide sentiment shifts that may affect Hercules Capital's performance.
Other Forecasting Options for Hercules Capital
The price movement of Hercules is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Hercules Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Hercules Capital Related Equities
The following equities are related to Hercules Capital within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Hercules Capital against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hercules Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Hercules Capital stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Hercules Capital.
Hercules Capital Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Hercules Capital is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Hercules Capital's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hercules Capital
Coverage intensity for Hercules Capital matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Hercules Capital Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Hercules Capital matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 194.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 56.9 M |
More Resources for Hercules Stock Analysis
A structured review of Hercules Capital often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Ratios and trend metrics help frame Hercules Capital's operating context. Key reports that frame Hercules Capital Stock are listed below:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hercules Capital to cross-verify projections for Hercules Capital. The historical series provides projection context. To learn how to invest in Hercules Stock, please use our How to Invest in Hercules Capital guide.Analysis related to Hercules Capital should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.314 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 1.85 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.128 |
The market value of Hercules Capital is measured differently than book value, which reflects Hercules accounting equity. Hercules Capital's market capitalization is 2.58 B. A P/B ratio of 1.16 indicates the market values Hercules Capital above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 4.79 B. Value and price for Hercules Capital are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.
Note that Hercules Capital's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Hercules Capital, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 5.16, a P/B ratio of 1.16, a profit margin of 63.8%, and ROE of 16.16%. Market price reflects the current exchange level formed by active bids and offers.