John Hancock Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HTD Fund | USD 23.97 0.06 0.25% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of John Hancock Tax on the next trading day is expected to be 23.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.80. John Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast John Hancock stock prices and determine the direction of John Hancock Tax's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of John Hancock's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of John Hancock's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using John Hancock hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of John Hancock Tax from the perspective of John Hancock response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of John Hancock Tax on the next trading day is expected to be 23.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.80. John Hancock after-hype prediction price | USD 23.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
John |
John Hancock Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine John price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for John using various technical indicators. When you analyze John charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
John Hancock Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of John Hancock Tax on the next trading day is expected to be 23.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict John Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that John Hancock's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
John Hancock Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest John Hancock | John Hancock Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
John Hancock Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting John Hancock's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. John Hancock's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 23.11 and 24.83, respectively. We have considered John Hancock's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of John Hancock fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent John Hancock fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9338 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0092 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1607 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.8 |
Predictive Modules for John Hancock
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Hancock Tax. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of John Hancock's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
John Hancock After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of John Hancock at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in John Hancock or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of John Hancock, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
John Hancock Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting John Hancock's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on John Hancock's historical news coverage. John Hancock's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.11 and 24.83, respectively. We have considered John Hancock's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
John Hancock is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of John Hancock Tax is based on 3 months time horizon.
John Hancock Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as John Hancock is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading John Hancock backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with John Hancock, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 5 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.97 | 23.97 | 0.00 |
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John Hancock Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January John Hancock Tax is traded for 23.97. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. John is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on John Hancock is about 67.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.01. About 14.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.08. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. John Hancock Tax recorded a loss per share of 3.53. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of October 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of John Hancock to cross-verify your projections.John Hancock Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to John Hancock's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict John Hancock's future price movements. Getting to know how John Hancock's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how John Hancock may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PDT | John Hancock Premium | (0.10) | 2 per month | 0.52 | (0.11) | 0.78 | (0.93) | 2.59 | |
| PCN | Pimco Corporate Income | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.34 | (0) | 1.03 | (0.66) | 4.56 | |
| PHK | Pimco High Income | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.64 | (0.62) | 2.57 | |
| BTO | John Hancock Financial | 12.39 | 15 per month | 0.96 | 0.05 | 2.95 | (1.84) | 4.62 | |
| NRK | Nuveen New York | (0.04) | 4 per month | 0.21 | (0.11) | 0.61 | (0.40) | 2.10 | |
| EOI | Eaton Vance Enhanced | 0.02 | 5 per month | 0.76 | (0.04) | 1.03 | (1.37) | 3.77 | |
| AIO | Virtus Allianzgi Artificial | 0.54 | 3 per month | 1.15 | (0.02) | 2.12 | (1.72) | 5.54 | |
| CHI | Calamos Convertible Opportunities | (0.16) | 3 per month | 1.05 | (0) | 1.82 | (1.65) | 4.33 | |
| CII | Blackrock Enhanced Capital | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.91 | 0.09 | 1.88 | (1.55) | 5.38 | |
| CHY | Calamos Convertible And | 0.09 | 2 per month | 0.72 | 0.01 | 1.65 | (1.27) | 3.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for John Hancock
For every potential investor in John, whether a beginner or expert, John Hancock's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. John Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in John. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying John Hancock's price trends.John Hancock Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with John Hancock fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of John Hancock could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing John Hancock by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
John Hancock Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how John Hancock fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading John Hancock shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying John Hancock fund market strength indicators, traders can identify John Hancock Tax entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 386.47 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.24) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.03 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) |
John Hancock Risk Indicators
The analysis of John Hancock's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in John Hancock's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting john fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6503 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8378 | |||
| Variance | 0.7019 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for John Hancock
The number of cover stories for John Hancock depends on current market conditions and John Hancock's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that John Hancock is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about John Hancock's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in John Fund
John Hancock financial ratios help investors to determine whether John Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in John with respect to the benefits of owning John Hancock security.
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