Hammond Power Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HPS-A Stock | CAD 183.27 -0.14 -0.08% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.066 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.51 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.4475 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.4225 | Wall Street Target Price 232 |
The hype-based view summarizes Hammond Power's price response to recent headlines and peer coverage.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hammond Power Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 183.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 221.20.Hammond Power after-hype prediction price | C$ 183.38 |
The sentiment summary complements forecasting and technical views with analyst estimates and earnings data.
Hammond |
Hammond Power Additional Predictive Modules
Forecasting Hammond Power's price movement relies on structured analysis of indicator behavior, momentum signatures, and historical volatility patterns. Model confidence should be calibrated against recent prediction accuracy for Hammond, not just historical fit.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hammond Power Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 183.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.63 , mean absolute percentage error of 23.22 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 221.20 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hammond Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hammond Power's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hammond Power | Hammond Power Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Hammond Power Solutions uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 180.70 and upside around 185.86 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hammond Power stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hammond Power stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.2555 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2194 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6263 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0198 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 221.2045 |
The degree to which Hammond Power's exhibits mean reversion depends on how efficiently the market prices new information. In highly covered equities, the mean reversion window tends to be shorter.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The after-hype price distribution for Hammond Power helps investors understand how much of Hammond Power's predicted return comes from the central scenario versus tail outcomes. Strategies that rely on tail events for Hammond Power are inherently more speculative.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical news patterns for Hammond Power reveal how the market has historically digested different types of information about Hammond Power's business and market environment. Hammond Power's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 180.80 and 185.96, respectively. The model extrapolates these patterns to estimate likely price boundaries following the next significant.
Current Value
The next after-hype price estimate for Hammond Power Solutions is modeled on a 3 months horizon and is intended to show how price could normalize after sentiment pressure fades. The objective is to separate event-driven enthusiasm from a more stable price path once the market absorbs the catalyst.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hammond Power is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hammond Power backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hammond Power, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.58 | 1.74 | 0.06 | 9 Events | 2 Events | In 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
183.27 | 183.38 | 0.02 |
|
Hype Timeline
Hammond Power Solutions is currently traded for 183.27on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The company has historical hype elasticity of 1.74, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Hammond is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 183.38. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 32.66%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Hammond Power is about 893.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 183.33. About 40.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded earnings per share (EPS) of 6.79. Hammond Power Solutions had its last dividend issued on the 19th of March 2026. Assuming the 90-day trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 9 days. Cross-verify projections for Hammond Power using Historical Fundamental Analysis of Hammond Power. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
Peer hype analysis helps investors build a more complete picture of Hammond Power's competitive environment by quantifying the market's sensitivity to news across all major players in Hammond Power's sector.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BDGI | Badger Infrastructure Solutions | -0.40 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.13 | 3.09 | -4.21 | 10.89 | |
| RUS | Russel Metals | 0.1 | 5 per month | 1.80 | 0.14 | 2.15 | -1.94 | 12.24 | |
| MDA | MDA | 0.92 | 10 per month | 2.69 | 0.24 | 6.32 | -4.60 | 21.67 | |
| BDT | Bird Construction | 0.53 | 7 per month | 1.42 | 0.21 | 3.96 | -2.66 | 8.81 | |
| SIS | Savaria | -0.68 | 3 per month | 1.06 | 0.15 | 2.54 | -1.91 | 11.96 | |
| ARE | Aecon Group | 1.09 | 3 per month | 1.89 | 0.19 | 3.56 | -3.43 | 11.25 | |
| SES | Secure Energy Services | 0.49 | 5 per month | 1.44 | 0.16 | 3.57 | -2.66 | 8.74 | |
| TCL-A | Transcontinental | 0.26 | 5 per month | 1.19 | 0.02 | 1.70 | -2.01 | 5.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hammond Power
The price trajectory of Hammond is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Hammond Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.Hammond Power Related Equities
The following equities are related to Hammond Power within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Hammond Power against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hammond Power Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of Hammond Power stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Hammond Power Solutions with greater precision.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1205.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.03 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 183.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 183.49 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.40 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.14 |
Hammond Power Risk Indicators
Reviewing Hammond Power's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Hammond Power's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 1.97 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Variance | 6.66 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.14 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hammond Power
A coverage review of Hammond Power Solutions helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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Hammond Power Short Properties
A short-interest review of Hammond Power Solutions helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 34.1 M |
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