Horizon Defined Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HNDRX Fund | USD 83.78 -0.67 -0.79% |
The reference data on this page reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing output applied to Horizon Defined Risk's historical daily closing prices. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Horizon Defined Risk on the next trading day is expected to be 83.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.55.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Horizon Defined Risk forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Horizon Defined observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Horizon Defined Risk reflects Simple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Horizon Defined Risk on the next trading day is expected to be 83.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.13 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.55 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Horizon Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Horizon Defined's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Horizon Defined | Horizon Defined Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Horizon Defined Risk uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Horizon Defined mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Horizon Defined mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0352 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0383 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2714 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0032 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.5545 |
Other Forecasting Options for Horizon Defined
Understanding Horizon Defined's price movement is a prerequisite for any investor considering Horizon as a position. Horizon Mutual Fund price charts are frequently cluttered with noise that can interfere with accurate interpretation.Horizon Defined Related Equities
The following equities are related to Horizon Defined within the Options Trading space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Horizon Defined against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Horizon Defined Market Strength Events
For traders and investors in Horizon Defined Risk, market strength indicators offer a quantitative framework for evaluating the mutual fund's responsiveness to market conditions. These tools help identify when trading Horizon Defined shares is most likely to generate favorable returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 83.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 83.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.34 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.67 |
Horizon Defined Risk Indicators
Analyzing Horizon Defined's risk indicators provides a critical input for price forecasting and investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Horizon Defined's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about their exposure and hedging strategies.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3347 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4309 | |||
| Variance | 0.1857 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Horizon Defined
Story coverage around Horizon Defined Risk often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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