Hennessy Japan Mutual Fund Forward View
| HJSIX Fund | USD 19.64 0.19 0.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for Hennessy Japan is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Naive Prediction output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hennessy Japan Small on the next trading day is expected to be 19.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.45.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hennessy Japan Small. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hennessy Japan. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for Hennessy Japan presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hennessy Japan Small on the next trading day is expected to be 19.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.45 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hennessy Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hennessy Japan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hennessy Japan | Hennessy Japan Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Hennessy Japan's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hennessy Japan mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hennessy Japan mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4529 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.233 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.4488 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hennessy Japan
The distribution of Hennessy Japan's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Hennessy Japan's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Hennessy Japan's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Hennessy.Hennessy Japan Related Equities
Sizing up Hennessy Japan against these stocks within the Japan Stock space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Hennessy Japan's relative financial strength. Persistent outperformance or underperformance by specific peers relative to Hennessy Japan often signals structural advantages or weaknesses. Tracking Hennessy Japan's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hennessy Japan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Hennessy Japan give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Hennessy Japan Small. Market strength analysis for Hennessy Japan Small works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Hennessy Japan, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 19.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 19.64 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.095 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.19 |
Hennessy Japan Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Hennessy Japan's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Hennessy Japan's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Hennessy Japan's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Hennessy Japan's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8113 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hennessy Japan
A coverage review of Hennessy Japan Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.