Highland Global Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HGLB Fund | USD 8.79 0.03 0.34% |
Highland Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Highland Global stock prices and determine the direction of Highland Global Allocation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Highland Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Highland Global's share price is approaching 41. This usually indicates that the fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Highland Global, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Highland Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Highland Global Allocation from the perspective of Highland Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Highland Global Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94. Highland Global after-hype prediction price | USD 8.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Highland |
Highland Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Highland price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Highland using various technical indicators. When you analyze Highland charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Highland Global Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Highland Global Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 8.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Highland Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Highland Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Highland Global Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Highland Global | Highland Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Highland Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Highland Global's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Highland Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.32 and 10.26, respectively. We have considered Highland Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Highland Global fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Highland Global fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3548 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.015 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.099 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0106 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.94 |
Predictive Modules for Highland Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Highland Global Allo. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Highland Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Highland Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Highland Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Highland Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Highland Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Highland Global's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Highland Global's historical news coverage. Highland Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.34 and 10.32, respectively. We have considered Highland Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Highland Global is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Highland Global Allo is based on 3 months time horizon.
Highland Global Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Highland Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Highland Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Highland Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.47 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.79 | 8.83 | 0.11 |
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Highland Global Hype Timeline
Highland Global Allo is currently traded for 8.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Highland is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 8.83 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Highland Global is about 4454.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.79. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Highland Global to cross-verify your projections.Highland Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Highland Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Highland Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Highland Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Highland Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EOD | Wells Fargo Advantage | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.56 | 0.04 | 1.26 | (1.03) | 3.59 | |
| RIV | Rivernorth Opportunities | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.99 | (0.82) | 2.96 | |
| OPP | RiverNorthDoubleLine Strategic | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.77 | (1.14) | 2.43 | |
| DNMDX | Dunham Monthly Distribution | 0.05 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.66) | 0.14 | (0.10) | 0.31 | |
| GLO | Clough Global Opportunities | 0.07 | 4 per month | 0.69 | 0.03 | 1.27 | (1.25) | 3.38 | |
| HSFNX | Hennessy Small Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.15 | 3.76 | (1.52) | 13.11 | |
| RLTY | Cohen Steers Real | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.97 | (1.14) | 3.17 | |
| TSI | TCW Strategic Income | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.29 | (0.13) | 0.64 | (0.61) | 2.48 | |
| PSF | Cohen and Steers | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.45 | (0.16) | 0.54 | (0.75) | 2.10 | |
| SPE | Special Opportunities Closed | 0.11 | 4 per month | 0.73 | (0.02) | 0.76 | (0.91) | 4.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Highland Global
For every potential investor in Highland, whether a beginner or expert, Highland Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Highland Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Highland. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Highland Global's price trends.Highland Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Highland Global fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Highland Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Highland Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Highland Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Highland Global fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Highland Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Highland Global fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Highland Global Allocation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Highland Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Highland Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Highland Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting highland fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Highland Global
The number of cover stories for Highland Global depends on current market conditions and Highland Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Highland Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Highland Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Highland Fund
Highland Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Highland Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Highland with respect to the benefits of owning Highland Global security.
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