Heliospectra Publ Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HELIO Stock | SEK 0.11 0.01 10.00% |
This page provides reference data for Heliospectra Publ using Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heliospectra publ AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.31.When Heliospectra publ AB prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Heliospectra publ AB trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Heliospectra Publ observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Heliospectra Publ presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Heliospectra publ AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.000074 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.31 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Heliospectra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Heliospectra Publ's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Heliospectra Publ | Heliospectra Publ Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Heliospectra publ AB for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.0011 on the downside to about 8.62 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Heliospectra Publ stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Heliospectra Publ stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0014 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0052 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0504 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.3113 |
Other Forecasting Options for Heliospectra Publ
For investors considering Heliospectra, Heliospectra Publ's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in Heliospectra Stock price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.Heliospectra Publ Related Equities
The following equities are related to Heliospectra Publ within the Electronic Components space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Heliospectra Publ against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Heliospectra Publ Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Heliospectra Publ provide investors with a view of how the stock performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Heliospectra publ AB.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.1 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Heliospectra Publ Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of Heliospectra Publ's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in Heliospectra Publ's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 4.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.07 | |||
| Variance | 65.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 76.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 28.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -10.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Heliospectra Publ
Story coverage around Heliospectra publ AB often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Heliospectra Publ Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Heliospectra publ AB can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.7 M |
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