HCM TACTICAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| HCMSX Fund | USD 32.10 0.23 0.72% |
This page provides reference data for HCM TACTICAL using Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hcm Tactical Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 32.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.01.When Hcm Tactical Growth prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Hcm Tactical Growth trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent HCM TACTICAL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for HCM TACTICAL presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hcm Tactical Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 32.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.31 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.01 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HCM Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HCM TACTICAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HCM TACTICAL | HCM TACTICAL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Hcm Tactical Growth focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 30.51 and upside near 33.62.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HCM TACTICAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HCM TACTICAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0917 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4502 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0135 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.0101 |
Other Forecasting Options for HCM TACTICAL
For investors considering HCM, HCM TACTICAL's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in HCM Mutual Fund price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.HCM TACTICAL Related Equities
The following equities are related to HCM TACTICAL within the Large Growth space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing HCM TACTICAL against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HCM TACTICAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for HCM TACTICAL provide investors with a view of how the mutual fund performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Hcm Tactical Growth.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 32.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 32.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.12 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.23 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.39 |
HCM TACTICAL Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of HCM TACTICAL's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in HCM TACTICAL's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.52 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HCM TACTICAL
Coverage intensity for Hcm Tactical Growth matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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