HCI Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| HCI Stock | USD 161.97 -0.17 -0.10% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.123 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.025 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.22 | EPS Estimate Next Year 17.6075 | Wall Street Target Price 245 |
This section relates HCI Group headline activity to recent price behavior and peer context. Options positioning and short interest are used here to outline sentiment for HCI.
HCI Short Interest Summary
HCI's short interest measures the total number of shares sold short but not yet covered. Rising short interest can signal growing bearish sentiment among institutional and retail investors.
200 Day MA 169.7059 | Short Percent 0.0369 | Short Ratio 2.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 328 K | 50 Day MA 168.019 |
HCI RSI Snapshot
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HCI Group on the next trading day is projected to be 161.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.80.HCI Group Hype vs Price Pattern
Public perception of HCI Group - captured through news and social media signals - can drive HCI's stock price away from intrinsic value for extended periods. Analyzing these biases provides an edge for contrarian investors.
When HCI's market sentiment is overly bullish relative to its actual financial performance, the stock may be overvalued. Excessively negative sentiment can create buying opportunities for patient investors.
HCI Implied Volatility | 1.06 |
High implied volatility in HCI's options signals that the market anticipates large price swings in HCI stock. Conversely, low implied volatility indicates that investors expect relatively stable price action.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HCI Group on the next trading day is projected to be 161.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.80.HCI after-hype prediction price | $ 160.37 |
Hype signals are presented as complementary context to forecasting, technicals, analyst estimates, earnings, and momentum.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCI to cross-verify projections for HCI. The historical view provides additional context.Rule 16 for the current HCI contract - Pricing Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.0663% for the 2026-03-20 options. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 161.97, it implies a move of about $ 0.11 per day.
HCI Options Open Interest - 2026-03-20
Open interest on HCI summarizes how many option contracts remain open and helps frame liquidity and positioning.
HCI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine HCI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HCI using various technical indicators. When you analyze HCI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
HCI Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of HCI Group on the next trading day is expected to be 161.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.78 , mean absolute percentage error of 12.24 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 166.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HCI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
HCI Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HCI | HCI Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
HCI Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for HCI Group uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HCI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HCI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7771 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3297 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.78 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 166.8 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that HCI's price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
HCI After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for HCI visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of HCI's outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HCI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for HCI after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. HCI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 158.31 and 162.43, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of HCI's short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to HCI Group assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
HCI Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HCI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HCI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HCI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.06 | 1.60 | 0.04 | 8 Events | 6 Events | In 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
161.97 | 160.37 | 0.99 |
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HCI Hype Timeline
On the 11th of March 2026 HCI Group is traded for 161.97. The company has historical hype elasticity of -1.6, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. HCI is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 160.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 21.85%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.99%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on HCI is about 927.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 161.93. About 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of HCI was currently reported as 43.12. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.97. HCI Group recorded earning per share (EPS) of 22.72. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 8 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCI to cross-verify projections for HCI. The historical view provides additional context.HCI Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between HCI and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across HCI's competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate HCI's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.54 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.17 | 1.95 | -4.03 | 15.40 | |
| PLMR | Palomar Holdings | 4.80 | 7 per month | 2.01 | 0.04 | 3.35 | -3.52 | 8.55 | |
| SBCF | Seacoast Banking | -0.13 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.02 | 2.89 | -2.20 | 10.15 | |
| AHL | Aspen Insurance Holdings | 0.00 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.11 | 2.00 | -0.99 | 97.75 | |
| BANC | Banc of California | -0.06 | 13 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 2.76 | -3.91 | 11.00 | |
| BOH | Bank of Hawaii | -2.28 | 12 per month | 1.32 | 0.12 | 2.83 | -2.18 | 10.27 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 0.98 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 2.09 | -2.65 | 7.22 | |
| WD | Walker Dunlop | -7.56 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 3.59 | -4.59 | 25.64 | |
| OAK-PA | Oaktree Capital Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.03 | 1.17 | -1.13 | 3.93 | |
| SLDE | Slide Insurance Holdings | 1.49 | 8 per month | 2.24 | 0.06 | 4.88 | -3.93 | 14.76 |
Other Forecasting Options for HCI
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering HCI needs to understand the dynamics of HCI's price movement. Price charts for HCI Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.HCI Related Equities
The following equities are related to HCI within the Financials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing HCI against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HCI Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for HCI enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in HCI Group.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 161.97 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 161.97 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.09 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.17 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.17 |
HCI Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing HCI's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with HCI's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Variance | 4.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HCI
Coverage intensity for HCI Group matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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HCI Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to HCI Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
More Resources for HCI Stock Analysis
A structured review of HCI Group often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Below are reports that help frame HCI Group Stock in context:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of HCI to cross-verify projections for HCI. The historical view provides additional context. Analysis related to HCI should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 16.123 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 22.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.48 |
The market value of HCI Group is measured differently than book value, which reflects HCI accounting equity. HCI's market capitalization is 2.11 B. A P/B ratio of 2.05 indicates the market values HCI above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 986.74 M. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
Note that HCI's intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For HCI, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 10.45, a P/B ratio of 2.05, a profit margin of 33.19%, ROE of 40.46%. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.