Hydro One Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| H Stock | CAD 57.09 0.55 0.97% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Hydro One is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hydro One on the next trading day is expected to be 57.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.62.When Hydro One prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Hydro One trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Hydro One observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Double Exponential Smoothing projections for Hydro One are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hydro One on the next trading day is expected to be 57.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.32 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 25.62 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hydro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hydro One's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Hydro One | Hydro One Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Hydro One uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 56.05 on the downside to about 58.00 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hydro One stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hydro One stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0793 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.427 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0076 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 25.6184 |
Other Forecasting Options for Hydro One
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Hydro Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Hydro One's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Hydro One's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.Hydro One Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Hydro One within the Utilities space and serve as useful points for comparison. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Hydro One's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Falling behind peers on key ratios may signal headwinds or execution issues worth looking into. These checks provide a starting point for deeper study of Hydro One's strengths and weak spots.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Hydro One Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Hydro One enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. These tools help identify favorable windows for position changes in Hydro One. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Hydro One positions across market cycles.
Hydro One Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Hydro One's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Hydro One's and determining how best to manage it. Studying Hydro One's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of hydro stock.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6923 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9089 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.937 | |||
| Variance | 0.878 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.826 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.71 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Hydro One
Coverage intensity for Hydro One matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Hydro One Short Properties
A short-interest review of Hydro One provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 600.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 549 M |
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Other Information on Investing in Hydro Stock
Hydro One ratios capture relationships across its reported financial data. They summarize how financial performance connects to valuation.