Gabelli Utility Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GUT Fund | USD 5.91 -0.02 -0.34% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing reference information for Gabelli Utility summarizes the forecasted value and model error statistics based on historical price data. This data is provided for reference and analytical review.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gabelli Utility Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 5.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.26.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Gabelli Utility Closed forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Gabelli Utility observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Gabelli Utility's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference values are drawn from available trading data and are presented for informational reference only. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gabelli Utility Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 5.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0026 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.26 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gabelli Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gabelli Utility's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gabelli Utility | Gabelli Utility Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Gabelli Utility Closed for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 4.99 on the downside to about 6.87 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gabelli Utility fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gabelli Utility fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.3311 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0376 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0063 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.2576 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gabelli Utility
Investors evaluating Gabelli at any level need to understand the significance of Gabelli Utility's price movement for their investment outcomes. The presence of noise in Gabelli Fund price charts demands careful analysis to avoid misinterpreting short-term fluctuations as trends.Gabelli Utility Related Equities
The following equities are related to Gabelli Utility within the Asset Management space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Gabelli Utility against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gabelli Utility Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Gabelli Utility help investors evaluate how the fund tracks overall market momentum and conditions. These signals are used to determine optimal timing for entering or exiting Gabelli Utility Closed positions.
Gabelli Utility Risk Indicators
The assessment of Gabelli Utility's risk indicators plays a key role in forecasting its future price and managing investment exposure. Investors who measure Gabelli Utility's risk profile carefully are better equipped to decide how to manage their positions.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6443 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8563 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.95 | |||
| Variance | 0.9025 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9958 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7332 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gabelli Utility
A coverage review of Gabelli Utility Closed helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.
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