Gran Tierra Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| GTE Stock | CAD 11.11 0.50 4.71% |
Momentum
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.81 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.40 | EPS Estimate Current Year -2.14 | EPS Estimate Next Year -1.29 | Wall Street Target Price 9.1656 |
Hype-based context for Gran Tierra Energy connects recent headlines with price response and peer activity.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Gran Tierra Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 11.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.82.Gran Tierra after-hype prediction price | C$ 11.11 |
This sentiment layer is designed to be read with forecasting, technical, analyst, earnings, and momentum context.
Gran |
Gran Tierra Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gran price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gran using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gran charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Gran Tierra Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 11.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.33 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.17 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.82 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gran Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gran Tierra's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gran Tierra | Gran Tierra Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Gran Tierra Energy uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gran Tierra stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gran Tierra stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4843 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1428 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3303 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0431 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 19.82 |
Mean reversion in Gran Tierra's price occurs when temporary dislocations - caused by sentiment extremes, news events, or liquidity shocks - correct back toward the stock's historical fair value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Understanding Gran Tierra's probability distribution helps investors calibrate position size to their risk tolerance. The tails of the Gran Tierra distribution capture low-probability but high-impact outcomes that naive point estimates ignore.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Using Gran Tierra's historical news impact data, we estimate the likely price corridor for the next trading session after a significant headline. Gran Tierra's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.50 and 15.72, respectively. Note that past news reactions for Gran Tierra are not guaranteed to repeat, particularly in novel market environments.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Gran Tierra Energy assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gran Tierra is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gran Tierra backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gran Tierra, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.32 | 4.65 | 0.86 | 0.06 | 8 Events | 2 Events | In 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.11 | 11.11 | 0.00 |
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Hype Timeline
Gran Tierra Energy is currently traded for 11.11on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.86, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Gran is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gran Tierra is about 9687.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.05. About 52.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.2. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gran Tierra Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.23. The company recorded a loss per share of 7.4. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Gran Tierra completed a 1:10 stock split on 8th of May 2023. Assuming the 90-day trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 8 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gran Tierra to cross-verify projections for Gran Tierra. The historical series provides projection context.Related Hype Analysis
Understanding how Gran Tierra's direct competitors react to news events helps investors anticipate contagion effects and sector-wide sentiment shifts that may affect Gran Tierra's performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RECO | Reconnaissance Energy Africa | -0.10 | 5 per month | 4.72 | 0.11 | 12.00 | -7.53 | 31.78 | |
| AEC | Anfield Resources | -0.72 | 2 per month | 6.02 | 0.02 | 8.18 | -8.55 | 31.67 | |
| ACX | ACT Energy Technologies | -0.01 | 7 per month | 2.15 | 0.19 | 4.24 | -3.69 | 11.41 | |
| SHLE | Source Energy Services | 0.36 | 7 per month | 2.75 | 0.08 | 5.56 | -5.20 | 14.69 | |
| SEI | Sintana Energy | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 6.82 | -6.00 | 24.25 | |
| HME | Hemisphere Energy | -0.01 | 1 per month | 0.82 | 0.27 | 3.08 | -1.54 | 4.68 | |
| KEI | Kolibri Global Energy | 0.01 | 7 per month | 2.27 | 0.14 | 5.92 | -3.85 | 11.18 | |
| TPL | Tethys Petroleum | 0.07 | 2 per month | 7.31 | 0.06 | 18.25 | -13.79 | 60.16 | |
| QEC | Questerre Energy | 0.04 | 1 per month | 3.63 | 0.05 | 8.00 | -6.90 | 21.83 | |
| PSD | Pulse Seismic | -0.13 | 6 per month | 0.97 | 0.33 | 5.30 | -2.47 | 7.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gran Tierra
The price movement of Gran is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Gran Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Gran Tierra Related Equities
The following equities are related to Gran Tierra within the Energy space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Gran Tierra against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gran Tierra Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Gran Tierra stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Gran Tierra Energy.
Gran Tierra Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Gran Tierra is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Gran Tierra's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 3.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.86 | |||
| Variance | 23.58 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 20.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gran Tierra
Coverage intensity for Gran Tierra Energy matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Story coverage on Macroaxis is built for readers who approach markets from different levels of experience but share the same need for disciplined investment context. Used well, these stories become part of a broader workflow built around idea generation, validation, and risk-adjusted portfolio design.
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Gran Tierra Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Gran Tierra Energy matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 82.9 M |
More Resources for Gran Stock Analysis
A structured review of Gran Tierra Energy often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Ratios and trend metrics help frame Gran Tierra's operating context. Key reports that frame Gran Tierra Energy Stock are listed below:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gran Tierra to cross-verify projections for Gran Tierra. The historical series provides projection context. Analysis related to Gran Tierra should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.