Grifols SA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GRFS Stock | USD 7.58 -0.19 -2.45% |
This page provides Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Grifols SA ADR, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grifols SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 7.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.39.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Grifols SA ADR forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Grifols SA observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. Grifols SA's Simple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Grifols SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 7.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.04 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.39 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grifols Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grifols SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grifols SA | Grifols SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Grifols SA's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 5.40 on the downside to about 9.78 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grifols SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grifols SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.9968 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0323 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1566 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.3936 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grifols SA
The price movement of Grifols is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. Grifols Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.Grifols SA Related Equities
The following equities are related to Grifols SA within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Grifols SA against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grifols SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to Grifols SA stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell Grifols SA ADR.
Grifols SA Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Grifols SA is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Grifols SA's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.8 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grifols SA
Story coverage around Grifols SA ADR often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.
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Grifols SA Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Grifols SA ADR can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 680.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 824.6 M |
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