Guardforce Pink Sheet Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GRDAF Stock  USD 0.05  -0.0015  -3.06%   
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Guardforce AI Co. The model output shown here is derived from Guardforce's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Guardforce AI Co on the next trading day is expected to be 0.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0039 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.23.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Guardforce observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Guardforce AI Co observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for Guardforce AI Co is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for Guardforce - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Guardforce prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Guardforce price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Guardforce AI.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Guardforce AI Co on the next trading day is expected to be 0.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0039 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.000031 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.23 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guardforce Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guardforce's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Guardforce AI Co focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
0.05
0.0005
Downside
0.05
Expected Value
10.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guardforce pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guardforce pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 3.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0039
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.07
SAESum of the absolute errors0.2311
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Guardforce observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Guardforce AI Co observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Guardforce

For every potential investor in Guardforce, whether a beginner or expert, Guardforce's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

Guardforce Related Equities

The following equities are related to Guardforce within the Other Industrial Metals & Mining space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Guardforce against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Guardforce Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guardforce pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guardforce shares will generate the highest return on.

Guardforce Risk Indicators

The analysis of Guardforce's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guardforce's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Guardforce

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Guardforce AI Co can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage helps investors separate durable relevance from temporary noise.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.

More Resources for Guardforce Pink Sheet Analysis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Guardforce Pink Sheet

Understanding Guardforce AI typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Ratio analysis helps investors evaluate Guardforce AI Co Stock operating efficiency and financial trajectory. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for Guardforce AI Co Stock:
Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guardforce provides a cross-check on projections for Guardforce. The view supplies historical context for the projection discussion.
Guardforce currently shows ROE of 4.81%, market cap of 16.24 Million. Investors get more value from Guardforce analysis when it is combined with the construction and diversification tools listed below. The supplemental views below help investors decide how Guardforce complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
The concept of value for Guardforce differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Guardforce, key inputs include ROE of 4.81%, and revenue of 37.65 M. In practice, Guardforce price is set by the continuous auction process on its listing exchange.