Gorman Rupp Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

GRC Stock  USD 58.73  -1.78  -2.94%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data for Gorman Rupp is derived from the equity's published trading history. The resulting forecast and deviation statistics are presented as reference data for informational context. Forecast values and accuracy statistics are presented for informational purposes. All values shown are derived from publicly available market data.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gorman Rupp on the next trading day is expected to be 58.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.76.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Gorman Rupp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Gorman Rupp observations. The forecast reference data presented here for Gorman Rupp reflects Triple Exponential Smoothing model output and is intended as reference material for analytical use.
Triple exponential smoothing for Gorman Rupp - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Gorman Rupp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Gorman Rupp price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Gorman Rupp.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gorman Rupp on the next trading day is expected to be 58.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.88 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.76 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gorman Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gorman Rupp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Gorman Rupp's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 56.21 and upside around 60.81 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
58.73
58.51
Expected Value
60.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gorman Rupp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gorman Rupp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0171
MADMean absolute deviation0.996
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.017
SAESum of the absolute errors58.7615
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Gorman Rupp observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Gorman Rupp observations.

Other Forecasting Options for Gorman Rupp

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to Gorman Stock price swings identify potential support and resistance zones. Extreme price moves in Gorman occur more frequently than standard risk models assume. Support and resistance levels derived from Gorman Rupp's historical data identify zones where buying or selling pressure has stalled moves. A volume spike without a corresponding price move can signal accumulation or distribution ahead of a directional breakout.

Gorman Rupp Related Equities

These firms work in a similar space as Gorman Rupp within the Industrials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Gorman Rupp's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Gorman Rupp Market Strength Events

Tracking market strength indicators for Gorman Rupp provides context for understanding stock momentum dynamics. Tracking these indicators helps identify periods where trading Gorman Rupp is likely to be most rewarding. These tools are essential for timing trades in Gorman Rupp with a quantitative framework. Market strength indicators for Gorman Rupp are most useful when viewed as part of a broader analytical framework.

Gorman Rupp Risk Indicators

Properly assessing Gorman Rupp's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Gorman Rupp's. Analyzing Gorman Rupp's risk indicators provides a critical input for investment risk management. By quantifying the risk in Gorman Rupp's investment, investors can make more informed decisions about hedging strategies.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Gorman Rupp

A coverage review of Gorman Rupp shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.

Gorman Rupp Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Gorman Rupp matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding26.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments35.1 M

More Resources for Gorman Stock Analysis

A full view of Gorman Rupp is built from its financial statements and trend data. The data reflects Gorman Rupp's reported financial activity across periods.